Jihadist groups are no longer content with launching attacks in West Africa and the Sahel: they administer territories, control trade routes, exploit new technologies and are gradually pushing their influence all the way to the Gulf of Guinea.
Faced with this change, government responses are struggling to keep up, while a timid dynamic of regional dialogue is trying to regain momentum.
Speaking before the Security Council on Tuesday, the head of the UN Office for West Africa and the Sahel (UNOWAS), Leonardo Santos Simão, noted a constantly evolving threat.
‘Acute’ threat
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“The threat posed by terrorist groups and other non-State armed groups remains acute, particularly in the central Sahel and northern Nigeria, and is now rapidly targeting coastal states in the Gulf of Guinea,” he warned.
According to him, these organizations are now adapting their methods at breakneck speed. Drones, sophisticated communication tools, cryptocurrencies: their arsenal is constantly being modernised.
Their attacks are coordinated across multiple countries, while their links with transnational criminal networks are strengthening. Their objective extends beyond purely military operations. The terrorists want to consolidate territorial and economic control while undermining public trust in government authorities.
This trend can be seen in the events of the last few months.
Mali under pressure
In Mali, a coalition comprising the Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims (JNIM, in Arabic), affiliated with Islamist terror group Al-Qaeda, and the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) launched simultaneous attacks on April 25 against Bamako, Kati, Gao, Kidal, and Mopti.
According to Mr. Simão, these offensives resulted in civilian and military casualties, including the Malian Minister of Defence.
Fighting is now continuing in the north of the country, while the partial blockade of several roads is disrupting supplies to the capital, together with attacks on power lines.
In Niger, attacks have notably targeted Niamey airport and a military base in Tahoua, in the southwest. In Burkina Faso, the northern and eastern regions continue to suffer attacks, sometimes carried out using drones.
Finally, in Nigeria, the north of the country and the central region known as the “Middle Belt” remain plagued by kidnappings, repeated attacks, and a heavy toll on civilians.
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Crisis takes root
As violence gains ground, population displacements accumulate.
At the end of February, West Africa and the Sahel were hosting nearly 6.8 million internally displaced persons, in addition to 1.3 million refugees and asylum seekers.
The Gulf of Guinea States, long relatively spared, are now hosting approximately 220,000 refugees.
In Liberia, the number of Burkinabe nationals living there has more than tripled since 2025, rising from 40,000 to 140,000, putting a strain on available land, public services, and host communities.
Humanitarian access, however, continues to deteriorate. Funding shortfalls reduce relief operations, while women, children, and young people bear the brunt of the crisis’s consequences.
Drugs fuel instability
Another worrying development is the rise in drug trafficking.
According to Mr. Simão, drug production, trafficking, and consumption are increasing rapidly, particularly in coastal states where authorities are carrying out numerous seizures. Young people are the primary victims, but some armed groups are also reportedly using these substances for their fighters. Even more worrying, the cartels are said to be exerting growing influence over certain public institutions, contributing to their weakening.
This phenomenon illustrates the growing interconnectedness between terrorism, organized crime and parallel economies, which is further blurring the lines between insurgency, trafficking and effective government across a stormy region.