A US Army Special Forces master sergeant, Gannon Ken Van Dyke, has been arrested for allegedly using classified military intelligence to orchestrate a lucrative insider trading scheme on the prediction marketplace Polymarket. Van Dyke is accused of leveraging his direct involvement in the planning and execution of the operation to capture former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro to net over $409,000 in profits.
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According to the Department of Justice, Van Dyke opened his account on December 26, 2025. Between December 27 and January 2, he placed 13 strategic “Yes” wagers on several highly specific outcomes, including:
- US military intervention in Venezuela by January 31, 2026.
- The removal of Maduro by the end of January.
- The invocation of War Powers against Venezuela.
Maduro and his wife were ultimately captured by US forces on January 3, 2026. Van Dyke had wagered a total of $33,034, by betting on a sure thing known only to military insiders, he achieved a ten-fold return.
Following the capture, reports circulated regarding an anonymous gambler who profited half a million dollars before the official announcement. To evade detection, Van Dyke allegedly moved his winnings to a foreign crypto vault before depositing them into a new brokerage account. He also reportedly requested that Polymarket delete his account under false pretences and scrubbed his name from associated crypto email addresses.
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Van Dyke now faces severe federal charges:
- Wire Fraud: Max 20 years in prison.
- Commodity Exchange Act Violations (3 counts): Max 10 years per count.
- Unlawful Monetary Transaction: Max 10 years.
This case highlights the growing struggle prediction markets face regarding insider information. It follows recent disciplinary actions by Kalshi against political candidates in Minnesota, Texas, and Virginia for betting on their own campaigns, though Van Dyke’s alleged exploit of classified military secrets represents a far more serious breach of national security and financial integrity.
