An expected El Niño drought, rising costs and shrinking humanitarian aid could worsen food insecurity and poverty across southern Africa in 2027. South Africa’s strong grain harvest and water reserves offer some protection, but regional food shortages may increase pressure on supplies and exports.
October is a special month in global agricultural and food organisations. On the 16th many celebrated World Food Day, which marks the founding of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization in 1945.
It also gives countries a chance to reflect on their food security conditions and outline plans to strengthen resilience and contribute to efforts to reduce poverty in countries that remain highly impoverished.
But this year’s World Food Day celebrations were different. Unlike in previous years, when some countries reported declining poverty levels, the outlook for 2027 is worrying, particularly in southern Africa.
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Ongoing geopolitical conflicts
Many countries in the region face rising costs because of ongoing geopolitical conflicts, which have not only increased energy costs but also complicated supply chains. Compounding the challenge in 2027 is the likely El Niño drought, which could push poverty up across most of southern Africa.
Already, the Food and Agriculture Organization suggests the region may face challenging conditions that could be worse than the 2015-16 drought.
In late June 2026, commenting on southern Africa’s recent droughts of 2015-16 and the expected 2026-27 drought, the Food and Agriculture Organization stated that “the most recent El Niño cycle brought the region’s worst drought…