Putin is putting his bromance with Xi on full display — but China has reason to be wary

Russian President Vladimir Putin (R) is greeted by a ceremonial guard and received a red-carpet welcome in Beijing, China on May 16, 2024.

Kremlin via Anadolu via Getty Images

Russia’s President Vladimir Putin is meeting China’s Xi Jinping in Beijing. The countries formed a “no limits” partnership in the wake of Russia’s Ukraine invasion. But there are risks as well as rewards for China. 

China’s leader, Xi Jinping, rolled out the red carpet for his “old friend” Vladimir Putin on Thursday.

As he arrived at Beijing’s People’s Hall, the Russian president was greeted by children waving Russian flags, hundreds of soldiers, and an orchestra playing Soviet themes.

For his part, Putin lavished praise on China, whose support has been vital during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

But underneath the pageantry and rhetoric, Xi is under mounting pressure over his alliance with Putin — and he has good reason to be wary of their “no limits” partnership.

The US in early May imposed new sanctions on Chinese banks and companies, accusing them of trading vital duel-use components with Russia for making weapons for its military in Ukraine.

President Vladimir Putin and China’s President Xi Jinping attend a concert marking the 75th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between Russia and China in Beijing.

ALEXANDER RYUMIN via Getty Images

During Xi’s visit to Europe last week, Western politicians called on the Chinese leader to put Putin under more pressure to end the war in Ukraine.

There are signs that China is approaching the partnership with caution. It appears China’s state media has toned down its rhetoric on Russia. According to the BBC, the term “no limits” partnership is now barely used.

Zhao Tong, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment, told the BBC that China is downplaying its relationship with Putin: “While China supports the goal of undermining Western influence, it does not agree with some of Russia’s tactics, including the threat of using nuclear weapons. China is acutely aware of the reputational costs of appearing to offer unconditional support to Russia and is continuously refining its strategies to enhance its perceived legitimacy on the global stage.”

Graeme Thompson, an analyst with the Eurasia Group, told Business Insider that from China’s perspective, the “no limits” partnership, in fact, had a clear limit — the risk of major damage to China’s wealth.

“The key limit to the ‘no limits’ partnership between Russia and China is that Beijing is unwilling to go so far in its support for Moscow that it would expose major Chinese firms to potential US sanctions,” said Thompson, pointing out that China had not so far crossed US red lines and directly supplied Russia with weapons.

Russia, he said, needs China more than China needs Russia, relying on Beijing for crucial economic and diplomatic support as it faces increasing isolation on the global stage.

But China, Thompson said “is finding that its partnership with Russia can be a liability — especially in Europe, where Xi would love to wedge the Europeans away from the United States.”

Despite the pressure, Xi also wants to show that he’s not backing down, hence the lavish welcome for Putin in Beijing. The Chinese leader has long bonded with Putin over their shared ambition to end US global dominance and sees a Russian victory in Ukraine as a way of dealing a huge blow to America’s power.

According to the Financial Times, trade between the two countries was $240bn last year, up 26% from a year earlier.

Joseph Torigian, an assistant professor at the School of International Service at American University in Washington, DC., told BI that Xi has pushed back against US claims it is helping to fuel the Ukraine war — arguing its trade with Russia is entirely legitimate and that it’s America that’s exacerbating the conflict.

“Meeting with Putin now is Xi’s way of showing that China will not bend to Western pressure,” said Torigian.

Ultimately, the Chinese leader is performing a balancing act, seeking to provide Russia with incremental but vital support in Ukraine, while not severing China’s ties with wealthy Western economies that its major businesses depend on.

It’s a balancing act that is proving more difficult to sustain, but in the long run, Xi may believe that his bet on Putin will pay off. The war in Ukraine may be turning in Russia’s favor, and there are signs in the West of fatigue setting in over helping Ukraine’s war effort.

“Beijing’s partnership with Moscow might not seem as strategically counterproductive in retrospect as it has appeared since February 2022,” according to Ali Wyne, an analyst with the International Crisis Group, citing the date of Russia’s invasion.