Washington, DC — Mr. Seedy Keita, Chairman of the African Caucus and Minister of Finance and Economic Affairs of The Gambia, and Ms. Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), issued the following statement at the conclusion of the African Consultative Group[1] meeting:
“Ministers and Governors from the African Consultative Group met with IMF Management today to exchange views on the evolving global environment and its implications for African economies. The discussions took place against the backdrop of the war in the Middle East, which will weigh on growth prospects worldwide, even if the recently announced ceasefire holds. Assuming a relatively swift normalization, global growth is projected to slow modestly to 3.1 percent in 2026 and 3.2 percent in 2027. If, on the other hand, the conflict is prolonged or the resumption of production and transport activities takes longer than assumed, the impact on growth will be larger.
“Despite the recent benefits of hard-won stabilization gains after a strong 2025, growth momentum in Africa is expected to slow down in 2026 contrary to earlier projections. Real GDP growth is projected to decline from 4.5 percent in 2025 to 4.2 percent in 2026, with growth in both Sub-Saharan Africa and North Africa declining from 4.5 percent in 2025 to 4.3 percent and 4.1 percent, respectively, in 2026. The outlook remains uncertain, as high debt service burdens, limited access to affordable financing, and growing development needs continue to constrain policy space, particularly in low-income and fragile and conflict-affected countries. The war adds another layer of complexity, with the potential for severe scarring, including from the return of inflation, food shortages, as well as other social tensions.
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“In this context, the African Consultative Group agreed that policymakers must focus on addressing the shock in the near-term while building resilience over the medium-term. Near-term priorities should include keeping inflation expectations anchored and protecting the most vulnerable through targeted, time-bound support. Fiscal policy should remain credible yet flexible—oil exporters should save temporary windfalls and rebuild buffers, while oil importers should safeguard priority social and development spending as they mobilize domestic revenues, improve spending efficiency, and strengthen public financial management. They further noted that countries should speed up reforms to drive growth and diversification, deepen regional integration and domestic financial markets, and invest in power and digital foundations to harness AI safely and productively.
“The African Consultative Group agreed that the ongoing review of the Low-Income Country Debt Sustainability Framework (LIC‑DSF) is strengthening the Fund–World Bank toolkit for assessing debt risks. This work is even more critical in the current environment, as war-related shocks are raising macroeconomic vulnerabilities and intensifying existing debt-service pressures, thereby underscoring the need for timely, transparent, and robust assessments of debt sustainability. Refinements to the methodology, including a re-specified debt‑carrying capacity measure and other enhancements should improve transparency, comparability, and predictive accuracy, and help country authorities and partners better identify vulnerabilities, calibrate policies, and support sustainable financing decisions, including by clarifying debt coverage and strengthening the treatment of SOE-related obligations where relevant.
“They underscored the importance of the ongoing Comprehensive Surveillance Review and urged the IMF to deliver tailored advice, strengthen assessment of imbalances and spillovers, bolster shock management, and prioritize and streamline surveillance activities.
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“The IMF reaffirmed its strong commitment to its African members. The Fund will continue to work closely with African countries to support sound policies, mobilize financing, strengthen resilience, and advance the region’s development objectives in an increasingly complex global environment.”
[1] The African Consultative Group comprises the Fund Governors of a subset of 12 African countries belonging to the African Caucus (African finance ministers and central bank governors) and Fund management. It was formed in 2007 to enhance the IMF’s policy dialogue with the African Caucus. The Group meets at the time of the Spring Meetings, while Fund Management meets with the full membership of the African Caucus at the time of the Annual Meetings.