LPG investment is Africa’s defining downstream opportunity over the next two decades. The window to act is open now.
At the IEA’s first Summit on Clean Cooking in Africa in Paris in May 2024, Akinwumi Adesina, then African Development Bank President, recalled studying by smoky lamps and cooking fires, which he links to eyesight damage. Still today, nearly one billion Africans cook with firewood and charcoal. Household air pollution kills about 815,000 Africans annually. Between 2022 and 2023, sub-Saharan Africa’s population grew by 30 million while only 11 million gained clean cooking access.
For a decade, refining has dominated Africa’s downstream story. But the next frontier is Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG): the continent’s fastest-growing petroleum product, a backbone of clean cooking, and a market with an underbuilt supply chain. Investment is urgently required: from gas processing and import terminals to bottling plants, inland logistics and household cylinders.
Africa’s next phase of growth will be shaped not simply by who has the resources, but by who invests first in the infrastructure that connects supply to demand.
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The race to build Africa’s LPG future
LPG accounts for 76% of people gaining clean cooking access in sub-Saharan Africa. Yet the region consumed 6.4 million tonnes in 2025, or 4.8 kg per person, against more than 50 kg in North Africa. Demand grew 12% last year, and CITAC Africa forecasts it will nearly triple to 17 million tonnes by 2045. By 2050, one in four people worldwide will be African.
The supply chain is not ready. The United States is Africa’s largest LPG supplier, yet no sub-Saharan terminal can discharge a full Very Large Gas Carrier (VLGC) cargo of about 45,000 tonnes. Only about 20 LPG storage facilities on the continent hold 10,000 tonnes or more, and stocks commonly cover ten days of demand or less. Africa buys mostly on the spot market, in small, expensive cargoes, without long-term contracts or price predictability. Demand is not the constraint. Molecules, terminals, cylinders and trucks are.
In 2026, when the Strait of Hormuz closed, import prices in East and West Africa jumped 70–100% above their 2025 average. When refills double in price or depots run dry, households return to charcoal. Clean cooking scales at the speed of the fuel supply chain.
The value chain opportunity
Investment is needed across the chain: gas processing and refining to keep more African LPG at home, despite exports of around 10 million tonnes a year; VLGC-capable import hubs and strategic storage for long-term contracts; bottling plants and cylinder manufacturing to reduce household costs; inland logistics for landlocked markets; and last-mile distribution through cylinder recirculation, small 3–6 kg cylinders and pay-as-you-go. The IEA estimates universal clean cooking in Africa will cost about $2 billion annually by 2040, less than 0.1% of global energy investment. Capital is not scarce; bankable structures are. Programmes too often fund just the stove rather than the entire chain.
The opportunity will not wait – and those who move first will help shape Africa’s LPG future. Three questions are critical: who invests, where, and how to bring developers and financiers together.
Who should invest, and why
No single player can do this alone, but each has a role and reason to move.
US producers supply most cargoes. Long-term contracts, with formula pricing over 12 to 24 months or longer, can make import hubs bankable, ideally backed by minority equity. Producers secure a region where LPG demand will grow for decades. The US Department of Energy supports the Fueling Lives initiative that champions LPG access abroad.
International traders such as Petredec, Vitol and Trafigura have the shipping, risk management and balance sheets to operate multi-country hubs. Cargo aggregation and redistribution are their business; first movers can secure prime port positions.
Gulf partners, including national oil companies, sovereign funds and trade financiers, can provide capital and cargo financing while gaining downstream growth. Saudi Arabia’s Oil Sustainability Program backs LPG clean cooking through Forward7, including the IGNITE challenge. Saudi trade financiers can fund cargoes. The next step is infrastructure capital.
Chinese investors are already at the table. In April, NNPC signed a memorandum of understanding with Sanjiang Chemical and Xinganchen (Fuzhou) Industrial Park on a potential equity partnership to restart and expand the Port Harcourt and Warri refineries, including petrochemicals and gas-based industrial hubs. Chinese firms can partner on gas processing, petrochemicals and cylinder manufacturing, provided cooking-grade butane is reserved for African kitchens.
African national oil companies contribute port land, concessions, domestic gas and host-country partnerships, while gaining energy security from gas now flared or exported.
African marketers such as Oryx Energies, Sahara, Ardova and Rainoil know customers, regulators and inland routes. Oryx, now African-led following the recent management buyout, is a leading LPG marketer. In Tanzania, it opened Zanzibar’s first LPG import terminal in 2024. These marketers’ last-mile investments have, to our knowledge, paid off.
The model is a regional-hub consortium: a trader as operator, US supply contracts as anchor, an African national oil company as host, Gulf or development finance as capital, and African marketers serving inland and last-mile markets.
Where to invest, and why
Anchor markets: scale today
Nigeria, Côte d’Ivoire, South Africa and Angola account for over half of sub-Saharan demand. Nigeria, at about 1.4 million tonnes, targets 5 million tonnes annually by 2030. As the Dangote refinery displaces imports, opportunities shift to gas processing, storage, bottling and distribution. Côte d’Ivoire grew 12% in 2025 and South Africa 15%; Durban is getting a 30,000-tonne terminal, with a rail hub planned for Gauteng. Angola, a net exporter with Africa’s newest large terminal at Barra do Dande, can become a regional supplier.
Corridor hubs: one terminal, many markets
Coastal hubs can serve landlocked neighbours. Kenya (Mombasa) can supply Uganda, Rwanda, South Sudan and eastern DRC; Taifa Gas is completing a VLGC-capable terminal, while Kenyan consumption remains around half its 15 kg per person target. Tanzania can serve Zambia, Malawi, Burundi and the DRC; Petredec’s VLGC-capable Tanga terminal is due in 2027. Angola can reach the DRC and Zambia through the Lobito Corridor. Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana are gateways to the Sahel; Ghana targets 50% LPG penetration by 2030.
Frontier markets: the largest upside
The Democratic Republic of Congo and Ethiopia have over 250 million people but consumed only 25,000 and 28,000 tonnes of LPG respectively in 2025, barely more than one VLGC cargo combined. Kinshasa runs on charcoal. Whoever builds supply routes into these markets will shape them for a generation.
How ARDA convenes developers and financiers
Multi-country investment needs a neutral platform for governments, regulators, companies and financiers. That is ARDA’s role. In its 20th year, with around 85 members across Africa, ARDA can bring regional hub consortium partners to the same table.
Building the pipeline. The ARDA Investment Forum screens projects against five criteria (sustainability, regulatory support, economic viability, technical viability and execution capability) and matches bankable ones with financiers, including Afreximbank, the Africa Finance Corporation, Standard Bank and the Mauritius Commercial Bank.
Deploying capital. With the Global LPG Partnership (GLPGP), ARDA is progressing a US$1 billion fund for clean cooking. It is engaging African development finance institutions and members to build a pipeline, with VLGC-capable terminals the lead category.
De-risking the market. Through its annual LPG Forum, co-hosted this year with the World Liquid Gas Association, and work groups on LPG, regulation and sustainable financing, ARDA advocates harmonised safety rules, cost-reflective pricing, open access to shared infrastructure, minimum stock cover and model contracts. ARDA also advocates wider use of partial risk guarantees, which account for just 5% of international public clean energy finance to developing countries.
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Sharing intelligence and partnerships. With CITAC, Argus, S&P Global, the World Liquid Gas Association and the IEA, ARDA provides market data to size projects and avoid overbuilding where domestic supply displaces imports. It connects members with Fueling Lives and Forward7, shares case studies and links distributors and last-mile innovators with support.
Who dares wins
First movers are already staking their claims, and Chinese capital is circling Nigeria’s refineries and gas. Washington and Riyadh, capitals of two of the world’s leading LPG exporters, champion clean cooking in Africa, yet large-scale terminal investment has not followed. This gap is the opportunity. Port sites, concessions and anchor customers are finite. Investors who move now can secure terminals, contracts and customer relationships in a market set to triple. Those who wait may find the best sites taken.
The fuel is available, and demand is certain. So, who will ensure the next generation can study by clean light and eat meals cooked without smoke?
Join industry leaders at ARDA’s third LPG Forum in Dar es Salaam on 24–25 November 2026, under the theme “Unlocking Africa’s LPG Potential: A Catalyst for Industrialisation, Energy Security and an Inclusive Energy Transition”, to explore who will seize this opportunity – and turn Africa’s LPG potential into investment, impact and a healthier future for all.
Who dares… wins. The time is now.
Anibor O. Kragha, Executive Secretary, African Refiners and Distributors Association (ARDA)
