Addis Abeba — In an analysis published this week, Foreign Policy magazine cautioned that the risk of a renewed war between Ethiopia and Eritrea is increasing amid shifting political dynamics in Ethiopia’s Tigray region. The U.S.-based publication, known for its in-depth global affairs coverage, warned that recent developments could “erode the current balance of uncertainty” that has thus far prevented open conflict between the two neighbors.
“For more than a year, another catastrophic war between Eritrea and Ethiopia has appeared imminent,” the magazine wrote, noting that “seasoned experts and political figures have repeatedly raised the alarm, citing the seemingly irreconcilable differences between the leaders of the two states, escalating rhetoric, and military mobilizations as the most ominous signs.”
According to the analysis, while mutual uncertainty has helped maintain a tenuous peace, recent developments in Tigray could undermine this fragile restraint and trigger confrontation.
The report recalled that Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki were close political allies between 2018 and 2022. However, the fallout from the Tigray war and Ethiopia’s subsequent push for sea access have “created a wide chasm” between the two leaders.
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Ethiopian officials have in recent months questioned the legitimacy of Eritrea’s 1993 independence, while both governments have traded public accusations of aggression and ill intent. The report also mentioned growing speculation over arms purchases and military deployments near the Eritrean Red Sea port of Assab, which Ethiopian authorities have expressed interest in accessing.
Despite these tensions, Foreign Policy noted that neither side has initiated war, largely due to mutual doubts over their ability to prevail. “The trajectory of wars is always difficult to predict,” it said, particularly along the volatile 620-mile Eritrea-Ethiopia frontier, where both sides have fought costly and unpredictable wars in the past.
The magazine observed that uncertainty also extends to international responses. “The reactions of critical international actors, including the United States and Gulf states, remain hard to forecast,” it wrote, adding that political flux in Tigray makes it difficult to assess how the region would align in the event of renewed conflict.
New regional dynamics are now heightening the risk, the report warned, pointing to growing proximity between Tigray’s leadership and Eritrean authorities as a possible accelerant. “Only by de-escalating tensions between Addis Ababa and Tigray, and finding mutually agreeable pathways to enhance Ethiopian port access, can the risks of war be sustainably reduced,” it said.
The outcome of any potential war, the article emphasized, would be “wildly uncertain.” Leaders in both Addis Ababa and Asmara are well aware, it said, that previous conflicts have taken unexpected and disastrous turns.
The broader international environment further complicates the picture. “In an era of dramatic global reordering, neither Addis Ababa nor Asmara can be sure where the balance of diplomatic or material support will ultimately fall,” the magazine observed.
A potential conflict, it added, could also entangle neighboring Sudan, where war continues between rival forces. Eritrea and Ethiopia might seek to enlist regional allies–such as the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, or Sudanese factions–but the outcome of such alignments remains highly uncertain.
Tigray remains the most consequential variable in this complex equation. Both Addis Ababa and Asmara, the report noted, are courting influence in the region while trying to balance fragile political interests in Amhara and contested areas such as western Tigray. Neither side is keen on the establishment of a TPLF-controlled corridor to Sudan–albeit for different strategic reasons.
“With the logic of restraint quickly collapsing, urgent action is needed to prevent the next Eritrea-Ethiopia war,” Foreign Policy concluded. It underscored that reviving dialogue between Ethiopia’s federal government and the Tigray authorities is an essential first step.
“Whatever the formula for de-escalation,” the report said, “the bottom line is that the Horn of Africa, and the world, cannot afford another Eritrea-Ethiopia war.”
Similarly, Addis Standard has extensively covered the accusations and counter-accusations exchanged between Ethiopia and Eritrea over the past years. In its editorials, the publication has consistently underscored that the two countries do not deserve another war.
In a recent editorial titled “No Exit Through War – Ethiopia and Eritrea Must Step Back from the Brink,” Addis Standard emphasized that the Horn of Africa cannot afford another militarized confrontation, particularly over access to the Red Sea.
Earlier October, Ethiopia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs sent a letter to UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres accusing Asmara of colluding with a hardline faction of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) to “wage war.”
The letter, signed by the foreign minister, alleged that Eritrea and the TPLF were “funding, mobilising and directing armed groups” in the Amhara region, where federal forces have fought rebels for several years.
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The TPLF on rejected the claims, calling cross-border engagement a step toward peace and urging renewed international efforts to ensure full implementation of the Pretoria peace deal.
Eritrean troops backed Ethiopian federal forces during the Tigray war, but relations have since soured.
Asmara has accused Addis Ababa of seeking control of the Red Sea port of Assab, while Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has repeatedly emphasized Ethiopia’s need to regain sea access lost after Eritrea’s independence.
Ghebremeskel accused Ethiopia of plotting to undermine Eritrea’s “hard-won independence and sovereignty,” saying: “For the last two years, the regime’s policy mantra has revolved around acquiring sovereign access to the sea through legal means if possible, or military force if necessary.”
In June, a U.S. monitoring group reported that Eritrea was rebuilding its army and destabilizing its neighbors–an accusation Asmara rejected, blaming “new regional tensions” on Ethiopia. Relations between the two countries had thawed in 2018 after Abiy came to power and signed a peace deal with Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki, earning Abiy the Nobel Peace Prize a year later.
