New York — As incomes rise in middle-income countries, so does the demand for animal-sourced calories, resulting in large increases to global food production, and raising the importance for sustainable agriculture amidst growing concerns of climate change.
According to a new joint report from the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), projections of global per capita calorie intake from livestock and fish will increase by 6 percent from 2025 to 2034. This aggregate demand increase is largely driven by lower- and middle-income countries, where intak is expected to exceed to 24 percent, four times the global average.
To emeet this demand, global fish production is projected to grow by 14 percent, particularly in middle income nations: leaving room for increased agricultural humanitarian support. In this same swing, meat, dairy, and eggs are expected to increase by 17 percent, supported by an inventory expansion of 7 percent in global cattle, sheep, poultry, and pig.
While these gains mean more food will be on the plate for most people, it comes with an environmental price tag. Greenhouse gas emissions due to agricultural activity are expected to rise by 6 percent in the next decade. However, FAO estimated that emissions could be reduced by 7 percent if productivity can be boosted by 15 percent, pegged to the adoption of emission-reduction technologies.
The report also emphasized the key role international trade has in feeding the world. By 2034, it is estimated that 22 percent of all calories consumed globally are expected to cross through international trade, maintaining the same trend of the past decade. Managing or expanding the 22 percent will require multilateral cooperation and a rules-based trade system, bolstering security, and safeguarding supply chains from potential disruptions.
“We have the tools to end hunger and boost global food security,” said OECD Secretary General Mathais Cormann. “Well-coordinated policies are needed to keep global food markets open, while fostering long-term productivity improvements and sustainability in the agricultural sector.”
FAO Director-General QU Dongyu made similar remarks to Cormann, adding that while the outlook indicates improved nutrition for many lower-income nations, persistent food insecurity in some of the world’s least developed countries remains an unsolved problem. On the same note, it was observed that low-income countries will remain at a damaging per capita daily intake of animal-based calories at just 143kcal, less than half of that which lower-middle-income countries have, far below the FAO’s 300 kcal benchmark for a healthy and even affordable diet.
The aggregate increase in agricultural productivity is expected to reduce commodity prices globally, putting more pressure on small-scale farmers. This comes as larger operations benefit far more from growing economics, making smallholders struggle to compete unless they adapt to the growing climate in the agricultural industry.
Two women harvesting paddy plants in Bali, Indonesia. Credit: Unsplash/Maurice Gerhardt
Key Projections in the 2025-2034 Outlook
- · Cereal production is expected to grow 1.1 percent annually, driven by a modest 0.9 percent increase in crop yields. Harvest area will only expand 0.14 percent per year, which is less than half the rate of the previous decade.· In high-income countries, among shifting dietary preferences, health concerns, and targeted food policy, per capita consumption of fats and sweeteners is projected to decline.· By 2034, 40 percent of cereal crops (wheat, rice, corn, barley, etc.) will be consumed directly, while 33 percent will be used for animal feed, and the remaining 27 percent on biofuel and industrial uses.· Demand for biofuel in this period will grow 0.9 percent annually, led by Brazil, India, and Indonesia· India and Southeast Asia will make up 39 percent of global consumption growth by 2034, up from 32 percent in the last decade. In contrast, the Chinese share is expected to decline from 32 percent to 13 percent.
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The report concludes with a call to action; that to achieve global good security, a boosting of agricultural efficiency in line with proper environmental devices amidst production will be necessary to reach global goals of zero poverty, and net zero emissions.
IPS UN Bureau Report