In his latest book, Institute for Security Studies founder Jakkie Cilliers challenges assumptions on whether democracy and the demographic dividend will lead to development in Africa.
Jakkie Cilliers is not afraid to court controversy. In his latest book, Africa’s Road to Prosperity: 10 Things to Know, just published, Cilliers, founder of the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) and now head of its African Futures and Innovation Programme, for instance, says that democracy is not necessarily the panacea for Africa’s ills that many believe.
In fragile post-conflict states such as Somalia and South Sudan, competitive politics (including elections) can even undo much of the progress made in ending violence, as politicians often rally electoral support based on ethnic or religious grounds.
The historical evidence, he says, suggests rather that low-income African countries should first strive for stability, particularly control over their territories, which many lack, and strong institutions, to provide a secure platform for economic growth “and then gradually strengthen democracy”.
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This view has, unsurprisingly, dismayed some African opposition leaders trying to dislodge dictators.
Cilliers acknowledges there is a dilemma as “authoritarian growth models are risky and often unsustainable as they depend heavily on individual leaders rather than durable institutions”. Indeed, one should add, the problem is that so many authoritarian African leaders cling so tenaciously to power, permanently postponing the evolution to democracy.
Democracy first or…