A “perfect storm” of climate change and cyclical La Niña weather patterns have been fuelling the catastrophic flooding sweeping southern Africa for the past month, according to climate scientists.
Torrential rains and floods have killed more than 100 people in South Africa, Mozambique, Zambia, Zimbabwe and Eswatini since December, and displaced hundreds of thousands of others.
Some areas received “over a year’s rain in just days”, said World Weather Attribution (WWA), an international team of scientists studying the link between climate change and extreme weather.
The intensity of such extreme rainfall events has increased by 40 percent since pre-industrial times, according to the group – a sign that warmer ocean temperatures linked to greenhouse gas emissions are partly to blame.
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“Data confirms a clear move toward more violent downpours,” WWA said.
The La Niña weather phenomenon also worsened things. “This effect was compounded by the current La Niña, which naturally brings wetter conditions to this part of the world, but is now operating within a more moisture-rich atmosphere,” the report said.
Oceanic and temperature shifts
Flooding in south-eastern Africa has become more frequent and severe as climate change makes storms in the adjacent Indian Ocean more powerful.
La Niña involves the temporary cooling of temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. The World Meteorological Organisation has predicted a weak La Niña in this cycle, but warned that warmer-than-normal sea temperatures linked to climate change are increasing the chance of floods and droughts.
“Human-caused climate change is supercharging rainfall events like this with devastating impacts for those in its path,” said Izidine Pinto, a senior climate researcher at the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute and co-author of WWA’s report.
“Our analysis clearly shows that our continued burning of fossil fuels is increasing the intensity of extreme rainfall, turning [it]… into something much more severe.”
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Food shortages in Mozambique
In Mozambique, more than 180,000 hectares of farmland have been flooded, leaving food hard to come by.
“Before the floods, a bag of rice cost 1,600 meticals, or 20 euros; today it costs 2,300, or 30 euros,” said Marta Josè Bila, head of a emergency shelter in Xai Xai, capital of the hard-hit southern province of Gaza.
“Charcoal costs 1,500 meticals – 19 euros – whereas before it cost 750, so less than 10 euros,” she said.
In shelters like this one, set up to host displaced people, community kitchens share what food remains.
“Today, we prepared two pots of rice, two pots of ugali, and one pot of chicken. It’s a lot of work, but because we’re doing it together, it becomes easy,” said Melusi Ernesto Cosamanti, the 64-year-old in charge. She and her fellow cooks serve more than 1,700 meals a day.
Lora Salvador Mondlane has been living at the shelter with her children since losing her home. “We eat what we can,” she said. “We either have breakfast or dinner. The portions are small, not enough for everyone. But we have no choice.
“Everything was washed away, including our food.”
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South Africans ‘cut off from the world’
In South Africa, burst rivers forced the closure of Kruger National Park, one of the country’s main tourist draws. The damage is expected to take years to repair and cost millions of dollars.
Fifteen tourist camps are still closed, with some completely inaccessible, said the Minister of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment, Willie Aucamp. Hundreds of people were evacuated and no lives were lost.
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While animals instinctively move to high ground to escape the floods, people living nearby are at risk as crocodiles sweep beyond their usual habitats.
South Africa’s northern regions were under a red weather warning for over a week. Hundreds of homes have been destroyed, and the army has deployed helicopters to rescue people sheltering on rooftops and in trees.
“Some areas are inaccessible,” Ali Sablay, head of mission for the NGO Gift of the Givers, which is assisting victims with essential supplies, told RFI.
“Many bridges and roads have been washed away. Communities are completely cut off from the world. They have no electricity. All their food is contaminated, and there is no drinking water.”
This article has been partially adapted from reporting in French by RFI correspondants Gaëlle Laleix in Mozambique and Joséphine Koeckner in South Africa, with newswires.
