UN Secretary General António Guterres with UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen. PHOTO/UN/FILE.
By PATRICK MAYOYO
Current emissions trajectories look set to warm the world by as much as 2.8°C (5.04°F) above pre-industrial levels by 2100, according to a report released by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP).
The UNEP assessment of available new climate pledges under the Paris Agreement finds that the predicted global temperature rise over the course of this century has only slightly fallen, leaving the world heading for a serious escalation of climate risks and damages.
UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report 2025: Off Target finds that global warming projections over this century, based on full implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), are now 2.3-2.5°C, compared to 2.6-2.8°C in last year’s report. Implementing only current policies would lead to up to 2.8°C of warming, compared to 3.1°C last year.
“However, methodological updates account for 0.1°C of the improvement, and the upcoming withdrawal of the US from the Paris Agreement will cancel another 0.1°C, meaning that the new NDCs themselves have barely moved the needle. Nations remain far from meeting the Paris Agreement goal to limit warming to well-below 2°C, while pursuing efforts to stay below 1.5°C,” UNEP says in a press release.
The report finds that the multi-decadal average of global temperature rise will exceed 1.5°C, at least temporarily. This will be difficult to reverse – requiring faster and bigger additional reductions in greenhouse gas emissions to minimize overshoot, reduce damages to lives and economies, and avoid over-reliance on uncertain carbon dioxide removal methods.
While some progress has been made on global emissions cuts, much more ambitious changes are necessary to avoid the worst of climate change’s effects.
The UNEP Emissions Gap Report is an annual stocktake of the gap between countries’ emissions reduction plans and actions needed to keep Earth’s temperature below the 1.5°C (2.7°F) warming limit set by the Paris Agreement, a legally binding international climate change treaty. Limiting warming to 1.5°C (2.7°F) will significantly reduce the losses, damages, and deaths from climate change, according to the UN.
This year’s report found that though the predicted global temperature increase has fallen slightly since last year, and the emissions gap has narrowed, improvements were not nearly enough to avoid serious climate consequences.
Additionally, the formal withdrawal of the United States from the Paris Agreement in January is expected to wipe out 0.1°C (0.18°F) of projected improvements.
Even if every pledged country’s plans to reduce emissions (called Nationally Determined Contributions, or NDCs) are fully realized, the world is still projected to warm up to 2.5°C (4.5°F) by 2100.
The “ambition and action” that was expected from countries’ updated climate pledges this year “did not materialize,” Inger Andersen, executive director of UNEP, wrote in the report.
The report’s findings are “alarming, enraging and heart-breaking,” said Rachel Cleetus, senior policy director for the Climate and Energy Program at the Union of Concerned Scientists, in a statement. “Years of grossly insufficient action from richer nations and continued climate deception and obstruction by fossil fuel interests are directly responsible for bringing us here.”
The report finds that the world is virtually certain to exceed 1.5°C (2.7°F) of warming by 2100 if current policies continue (data suggests it already has, temporarily), and that there’s just a 21% chance of staying below 1.5°C (2.7°F) if current NDCs and net-zero pledges are realized.
Keeping average global warming under 1.5°C (2.7°F) remains technically possible, but requires an ambitious global emissions cut of 55% from 2019 emissions levels by 2035, according to the report.
Current NDCs “have barely moved the needle,” the authors wrote.
UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen. PHOTO/UNEP.
The past year was another record-breaking year for the climate, with multiple annual reports on climate change finding concerning climate indicators reaching record-breaking levels.
Ocean heat and wildfire-related tree cover loss are at all-time highs, deadly weather disasters have surged, and atmospheric warming is showing signs of acceleration. Global greenhouse gas emissions in 2024 were 2.3% higher than in 2023, more than four times higher than the annual average growth rate.
The Emissions Gap Report, along with other climate change reports released in October, is expected to inform discussions at the annual UN Framework Convention on Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP30), which will begin next week in Belém, Brazil.
These annual conferences are notorious for falling short of global climate goals, and a challenging geopolitical environment could make ambitious action even less likely.
Political will worldwide is lacking—fewer than one-third of parties to the Paris Agreement even submitted their required updates to their emissions reduction plans by this year’s September deadline.
These new NDCs “have done little to increase ambition,” the report states. Some countries’ newly submitted NDCs are less ambitious than their current policies’ emissions projections.
Still, low-carbon technology, climate governance frameworks, and progress on climate legislation have advanced substantially, and “these developments position the international community far more favourably to accelerate climate ambition and action than a decade ago,” the authors wrote.
While such acceleration is urgent, it also “makes sense,” Andersen said in a press conference. “This is where the new jobs are, this is where the economy goes … this is where the future lies.”
Andersen called on leaders at COP30 to understand that it falls upon them to pick up the work of climate mitigation and deliver on Paris Agreement targets.
Since the adoption of the Paris Agreement ten years ago, temperature predictions have fallen from 3-3.5°C. The required low-carbon technologies to deliver big emission cuts are available. Wind and solar energy development is booming, lowering deployment costs.
This means the international community can accelerate climate action, should they choose to do so. However, delivering faster cuts would require navigating a challenging geopolitical environment, a massive increase in support to developing countries, and redesigning the international financial architecture.
G20 action and leadership will be pivotal as G20 members – excluding the African Union – account for 77 per cent of global emissions. Seven G20 members have submitted new NDCs with targets for 2035, while three members have announced such targets.
However, these pledges are not ambitious enough, G20 members are collectively not on track to achieve even their 2030 NDC targets, and G20 emissions rose by 0.7 per cent in 2024 – all pointing to the need for a massive ramp up in action by the biggest emitters.
