Legacy network usage remains high in SA, and the path to shut down 2G and 3G networks is complicated.
New market analysis signals a challenge for South Africa’s operators and cellphone users, if plans to sunset 2G and 3G networks by December 2027 forge ahead.
This is according to Opensignal, which states South African smartphone users still spend up to 10% of their time connected to 2G and 3G, underscoring the task ahead for nationwide 4G and 5G adoption.
Last year, the Department of Communications and Digital Technologies (DCDT) gazetted its plans for the switch-off of legacy networks, setting the government-mandated deadline.
Telcos and industry bodies would prefer an industry-led approach, rather than the large-scale shutting down of 2G and 3G by the end of 2027.
The envisaged outcome of the switch-off of the nation’s 2G and 3G networks is that this will free up spectrum and expand 4G and 5G services.
Insights from the Independent Communications Authority of SA’s (ICASA’s) latest State of the ICT Sector report show South Africa has 116.8 million mobile cellular users.
ICASA’s research also states that machine-to-machine (M2M), for which 2G devices are mainly used, increased from 13 million in 2023 to 14 million in 2024, representing a growth rate of 7.55%.
Opensignal points out that legacy network usage remains high in SA, adding that the path to shut down these networks is far from straightforward.
It notes that delays may be unavoidable, particularly for Cell C, which no longer operates its own radio network and instead relies on roaming agreements with MTN and Vodacom.
“One of the biggest challenges to 2G network sunsetting is the large number of cheap 2G-only handsets being used by consumers to avoid crime. Theft of mobile phones – frequently involving the threat of violence – are all too common in some areas, meaning people will not carry smartphones on the street for fear of becoming a target.
“Some of these users will have more than one phone, with mobile device penetration topping 300% in South Africa, according to GSMA Intelligence, equating to over three devices per mobile user. So, users may have a smartphone for use at home or the office – but many remain reliant on the cheaper 2G devices while out and about.”
The independent insights provider highlights that operators have begun launching commercial initiatives to bridge the gap. For example, Vodacom now offers 4G cloud-based feature phones, while MTN has introduced 4G smartphones for selected prepaid customers.
“These measures will have some effect, but whether they will be in time for South Africa’s imminent 2G and 3G network sunsetting remains a major concern.”
The terms “2G sunset” and “3G sunset” refer to the process of mobile network operators phasing out or shutting down 2G and 3G wireless networks. Once this takes place, devices that are built for 2G or 3G will become completely inoperable.
There are still nearly two billion 2G and 3G subscribers worldwide, with most expected to gradually migrate to 4G and 5G by 2029, based on Ericsson’s Mobility Report.
In Sub-Saharan Africa, 2G subscriptions will maintain a significant share, mainly due to the region’s largely rural population, for whom broadband coverage is limited and smartphone affordability is a challenge, according to Ericsson.
Research firm Omdia forecasts that 2G and 3G networks will still represent 0.4% and 7%, respectively, of SA’s subscriptions by 2028.
The country’s telephony firms previously said sunsetting legacy networks must begin with 3G, with MTN SA recently revealing plans to decommission its 3G network by 2027. This, as 2G is expected to linger because of the M2M devices on which the older technology is embedded.
Opensignal says 3G dependence in SA persists, with Vodacom and MTN leading in the market, each commanding over 30% connection market share in the first quarter of 2025.
According to GSMA Intelligence, MTN had 77% of its total connections on 4G networks, with most of the remainder on 5G. In contrast, less than two-thirds of Vodacom’s total connections are on 4G, with the rest split between 5G and 3G.
“Cell C, which has not yet launched 5G commercially, has a similar proportion of total connections on 4G, but close to a third of its connections remain on 3G. It will be a challenge for the operator to migrate its 3G customers to 4G before the end of 2027.”
However, it seems operators might be offered a reprieve, based on the developments presented recently to the Parliamentary Portfolio Committee on Communications and Digital Technologies.
Updating the portfolio committee, the DCDT hinted at revising the December 2027 deadline.
Delivering the department’s revised 2025-2026 Annual Performance Plan, communications minister Solly Malatsi said his department is reviewing the target with regards to the legacy networks, particularly the phasing out of 2G and 3G devices.
The U-turn will see the department take a “much more practical and technically-sound” approach, given the distribution of these devices in the market, said the minister.
Ndinannyi Justice Libago, DCDT acting deputy director-general responsible for strategic planning and administration, told the committee that the department will consult with ICASA on the sunsetting of the 2G and 3G networks.
According to Libago, there are activities that ICASA is undertaking, and the department wants to see how the process will unfold moving forward, because it is already in the gazetted next-generation spectrum policy.
The department is also looking to work with the mobile network operators (MNOs) to establish a monitoring framework on the sunsetting of the 2G and 3G networks. “We want to look at their implementation plans to see which 2G and 3G sites they are switching off.”
Based on its presentation to the portfolio committee, the DCDT noted quarter two of 2025/26 to kick-start consultation with the MNOs, and quarter three to establish the monitoring framework.
