As the retail calendar barrels toward Black Friday and the festive season, brands are bracing for what could be a very unpredictable peak period. The economic landscape is volatile, consumer behaviour is shifting, and external pressures, from tariffs to supply chain disruptions, are mounting.
Why This Year’s Peak Will Be Different
“This year’s retail holidays are set against a backdrop of persistent cost increases as well as global uncertainty. We expect a massive shift in consumer priorities. Amazon Prime Day has shown us that shoppers are focusing on essentials, such as groceries, household goods, and everyday necessities, rather than big-ticket items,” says Michelle Goosen, Business Unit Director at Incubeta. “Even those fortunate enough to receive year-end bonuses are more likely to use them to pay down debt or cover basic expenses than to splurge on luxury goods,” she says.
Moreover, the retail season itself is expanding. What was once a sprint from Black Friday through to New Year’s has become a marathon, starting as early as October and stretching well into February. This extended period puts additional pressure on brands to maintain momentum, manage inventory, and keep campaigns fresh over several months.
Retail’s Biggest Challenges This Holiday Season
Retailers will have a number of new challenges this year to add to the growing complexity of planning for peak.
The looming threat of the new Trump mandated tariffs, including South Africa’s 30% set to come into effect in August, adds a layer of unpredictability to both pricing and product availability. Supply chain disruptions, already a headache for many, could intensify, making forward planning and risk management more critical than ever.
With essentials taking precedence, traditional holiday promotional goods may see diminishing returns. Brands must adapt to this new reality, focusing on value and relevance. Highlighting value beyond price and emphasising durability, quality, and the long-term benefits of products, will be key.
7 Retail Peak Season Strategies For 2025
1.Leverage local, sustainable suppliers
With tariffs threatening to disrupt global supply chains, local sourcing becomes a strategic advantage. Brands that can pivot to local suppliers will be better positioned to offer stable pricing and avoid last-minute shortages.
2.Enhance communication and collaboration
Open, frequent communication with agencies, digital partners, and suppliers is essential. Share contingency plans early and keep all stakeholders in the loop. It’s a massive communication play and everyone needs to be on standby this year. Start A/B testing strategies early. Even if budgets aren’t yet approved or set in stone, get your planning underway.
3.Embrace AI and automation
The brands that have invested in AI and automation will have a distinct edge. AI is perfect for hyper-accurate demand forecasting, price optimisation, and understanding customer behaviour. AI can analyse vast datasets in real-time, helping retailers make smarter decisions on inventory, pricing, and merchandising. This will be the year that AI really kicks into high gear. Automation, meanwhile, reduces manual effort and minimises human error, freeing teams to focus on strategy and creativity.
4.Prioritise personalisation and data-driven marketing
With consumers more selective than ever, generic promotions won’t cut it. Brands must actively leverage their own First Party customer data such as purchase history, browse behaviour, loyalty program engagement, and direct feedback, to create highly targeted and relevant messaging. South African consumers expect brands to understand and cater to their preferences.
4.Monitor market changes closely
Stay agile by keeping a close eye on any trade policy developments, market trends, and consumer sentiment. Be ready to adjust plans at a moment’s notice. Brands have the tech at their fingertips, they just need to use it wisely.
5. Stress test before the big days
Brands must ensure their digital infrastructure is robust enough to handle the spikes and anomalies. This should include:
- Scalable hosting and cloud solutions: Ensuring that websites and e-commerce platforms can dynamically adjust resources to accommodate increased demand without compromising performance.
- Load testing: Regularly testing systems under stress to identify and address potential bottlenecks before the holiday rush.
- Real-time monitoring and alerts: Implementing systems to detect and respond promptly to any issues that arise during peak periods.
7.Develop multiple contingency plans
In a world where “expect the unexpected” is the new normal, having a single plan is no longer sufficient. Brands and their agencies should prepare several versions of their retail peak season strategies so they can quickly adapt as circumstances evolve.
This year’s retail holiday season will test the mettle of even the most seasoned CMOs. The brands that succeed will be those that plan for every scenario, communicate relentlessly, leverage technology, and put the customer at the center of every decision. “Teams need to get busy now if they want to make sure they have planned for all contingencies. It’s going to be wild, best we all buckle up,” Goosen advises.
