The rand began the week at its lowest level in four months as escalating hostilities in the Middle East kept oil prices high, stoking inflation worries ahead of a much-anticipated interest rate decision.
At 8.51am, the rand traded at R17.23/US$, down 1.3% from its previous close, at its weakest level sincelate November 2025.
A sustained weakening of the rand is likely to put upward pressure on technology prices in South Africa, where the sector is almost entirely dependent on imported hardware.
Laptops, servers, networking equipment, smartphones and components are overwhelmingly priced in US dollars, meaning any deterioration in the exchange rate feeds directly into local shelf prices.
The timing could hardly be worse.
Global RAM and SSD prices have been surging as AI-hungry data centres hoover up memory and storage capacity, with Gartner estimating a 130% increase in combined DRAM and SSD prices by the end of 2026 — enough to push PC prices up 17% and smartphone prices up 13% globally.
Major manufacturers including Lenovo, Dell, HP, Acer and Asus have already warned of steep price hikes. For South African buyers, a weakening rand on top of those dollar-denominated component increases amounts to a double whammy: even before the currency moves, the hardware was getting significantly more expensive.
The big squeeze
Together, the two forces could price entry-level PCs and smartphones out of reach for a growing number of consumers and small businesses. Software priced in dollars, including cloud platforms, will also increase costs for consumers and businesses.
Rising oil prices are compounding the problem further by pushing up shipping and logistics costs, which are already a significant factor for a country at the end of long global supply chains. If the rand remains under pressure and oil stays elevated, local distributors and retailers may have little choice but to pass on higher costs to consumers and enterprises alike — adding to the squeeze on already tight IT budgets.
On Saturday, US President Donald Trump threatened to “obliterate” Iran’s power plants if it did not fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours, barely a day after he talked about “winding down” the war, now in its fourth week.
Read: Chip shortage hits PCs as AI swallows the world’s memory supply
Meanwhile, Iran said on Sunday it would strike the energy and water systems of its Gulf neighbours in retaliation if Trump followed through with his threat.
Analysts expect continued pressure on the rand after a torrid three weeks, amid concerns that rising oil prices will lift inflation in net energy importer South Africa.
Domestically, focused investor attention will be pinned on the South African Reserve Bank’s rate decision on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters expect the bank to keep its main lending rate steady at 6.75%.
Bank governor Lesetja Kganyago said earlier this month that the bank will revise its risk scenarios for its next policy meeting as the Middle East conflict continues to push oil prices higher.
Other economic indicators due this week include the composite leading business cycle indicator on Tuesday, and producer inflation data on Thursday.
Key South African exports gold and platinum fell 5% and 9%, respectively, further straining local assets. — Sfundo Parakozv, (c) 2026 Reuters, with additional reporting (c) 2026 NewsCentral Media
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