NPC commissioner Dr Tshepo Feela and DBSA CEO Boitumelo Mosako at the launch of the study. (Image source: Supplied)
While South Africa has made substantial broadband gains over the past decade, the country is still far from achieving universal and meaningful connectivity.
Connecting all South African households to high-speed broadband by 2035 will require investment between R108 billion and R142 billion, depending on the economic scenario and technology mix.
This is according to “South Africa’s Digital Infrastructure Investment Study 2025”, released by the Development Bank of Southern Africa (DBSA), in partnership with the National Planning Commission (NPC).
The study is an assessment of the country’s progress towards universal high-speed broadband and the investment required to achieve national connectivity targets by 2035. It also identifies priority actions and partnership opportunities required to expand reliable high-speed broadband and accelerate SA’s progress toward an inclusive digital economy.
South Africa’s infrastructure access gap is relatively small, states the report. However, affordability, device access, digital literacy, institutional fragmentation and outdated policy targets are now the main barriers to digital inclusion.
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The report’s analysis shows SA’s true network access gap is approximately 400 000 homes, or 2.2% of the total number of households in the country.
However, whether households can use and pay for broadband meaningfully at a price point of R300 a month, more than 50% of households would be unable to afford such connectivity in a scenario characterised by economic decline, it reveals.
Additionally, up to 40% of households would still be priced out of high-speed broadband at the R300 threshold.
Combined connectivity effort
In the report’s foreword, DBSA CEO Boitumelo Mosako and NPC commissioner Mark Swilling say bridging the connectivity gap will require sustained investment from both the public and private sectors, supported by innovative financing mechanisms and an enabling regulatory environment.
“Mobile broadband networks now cover most of the population, and fibre networks have expanded rapidly in metropolitan areas. However, a significant connectivity gap remains.
“While urban areas increasingly benefit from high-capacity fibre networks and emerging 5G services, many rural and peri-urban communities continue to rely primarily on mobile connectivity and remain underserved by high-speed fixed broadband.
“Affordability constraints and limited digital capabilities also prevent many households from fully participating in the digital economy. The analysis shows that achieving universal high-speed broadband will require substantial additional investment over the coming decade.”
Using the World Bank’s ‘Beyond the Gap’ methodology, the study models alternative investment pathways reflecting different growth scenarios and deployment strategies.
According to the results, connecting all South African households to high-speed broadband will require investment ranging from approximately R140 billion under least-cost deployment scenarios, to well above R200 billion under more ambitious fibre-led infrastructure pathways through 2035.
The report highlights that delivering universal connectivity across SA’s diverse geography won’t be delivered by a singular technology.
This, amid increased attention on expanding broadband connectivity to every corner of the country, with low Earth orbit satellites tipped as an additional technology to meet such needs.
According to the DBSA report, the country’s digital infrastructure strategy must rely on a complementary mix of technologies.
Mosako and Swilling explain: “Fibre networks will remain the backbone of the digital economy, delivering the high-capacity infrastructure required for data-intensive applications, cloud computing, digital public services and emerging technologies, such as artificial intelligence. Fibre-to-the-home and fibre-to-the-business deployments will continue expanding in dense urban and peri-urban areas where commercial investment is viable.
“Mobile broadband and fixed wireless access – enabled by widespread 4G coverage and expanding 5G networks – will play a critical role in extending high-speed connectivity across suburban, peri-urban and rural areas. These wireless platforms provide a cost-efficient means of delivering broadband to millions of households, while leveraging existing tower infrastructure and spectrum assets.
“Satellite connectivity will provide an essential complementary solution in remote and sparsely populated areas where fibre or mobile expansion is not economically viable. Together, this multi-technology architecture – combining fibre backbones, wireless access networks and satellite coverage – offers the most practical and fiscally sustainable pathway toward universal connectivity in South Africa.”
* The report’s work was produced by a project team led by Africa Analysis and supported by Ellipsis Regulatory Solutions and Networks Anonymous.
