Regulatory obstacles in South Africa could cost Starlink its usual first-mover advantage, potentially allowing Amazon’s Project Kuiper to enter the local market concurrently or even sooner. Kuiper, which began launching satellites in April, plans beta testing soon, with a commercial rollout expected in 2026. Amazon representatives have reportedly met with local telecoms ahead of this launch.
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While Starlink is operationally far ahead globally, its South African license application faces a significant hurdle: regulator Icasa’s rule requiring licensees to sell 30% equity to “historically disadvantaged persons.” SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has openly criticized these empowerment laws, famously stating Starlink isn’t in South Africa because “I am not black.”
Communications minister Solly Malatsi’s draft policy, issued in May, proposes exploring “equity equivalents” for ICT sector licensing. Starlink welcomed this directive in June, affirming its intent to apply under the new regime. The company has consistently maintained that its global operational model requires it to retain sole ownership of all subsidiaries.
However, amending regulations is a lengthy process. Legal expert Dominic Cull estimates it could take 18 months to two years for Icasa to finalize a new framework for equity equivalence investment programmes (EEIPs), pushing Starlink’s realistic application timeframe to late 2027.
This delay means Kuiper could launch around the same time as Starlink, potentially benefiting from the planned EEIP framework. Jens Langenhorst of Specialised RF, a consultancy, believes a simultaneous launch would create “a lot more price competitiveness in the market,” ultimately benefiting South African consumers. While Starlink has strong brand recognition, Kuiper would need substantial marketing to build local interest.
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Starlink and Kuiper employ different technical strategies. Starlink has deployed over 8,000 satellites orbiting at 550km, whereas Kuiper plans around 3,200 satellites at higher altitudes (590-650km) for global coverage with fewer units. Starlink’s lower orbit facilitates its long-term bet on direct-to-mobile capabilities and offers lower latency. However, Kuiper’s larger satellites allow for bigger components, aiming for higher bandwidth.
Currently, Starlink’s standard terminal offers speeds between 40Mbit/s and 250Mbit/s, while Kuiper is targeting around 400Mbit/s. Langenhorst notes that while Starlink has a first-mover advantage, “there are advantages to being second. I anticipate Kuiper will have superior technology simply because they have had longer to develop it, they have looked at some of the mistakes Starlink has made and they have hired some really smart people, some of whom worked at Starlink.”
The impending competition between these satellite giants promises to bring advanced broadband options to South Africa.
