Africa’s Trade Future in a Fractured Global Economy

Africa’s Trade Future in a Fractured Global Economy


In today’s global economy, trade remains the most significant glue that binds nations together. It is the foundation upon which the prosperity of our interconnected world rests. A single pencil, before it reaches a classroom in Kigali, may have travelled across multiple continents, passing through dozens of supply chains. This simple object illustrates globalisation’s promise: that by working together, we can achieve more than by standing apart.

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Since the fall of the Soviet Union, globalisation has been championed by the United States and its allies as the great equaliser — a system where nations, rich or poor, could depend on one another to drive prosperity, reduce poverty, and secure peace. For developing countries, especially in Africa, this vision carried the promise of hope. Emerging African republics, newly welcomed into the global community at the UN, were urged to embrace democracy, capitalism, and limited economic borders as the pathway to dignity and shared prosperity.

Also read: Africa’s opportunity in a fragmenting global economy


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Yet six decades on, Africa’s experience with globalisation tells a more sobering story. The wealth generated by global trade has indeed been immense: the World Trade Organisation (WTO) estimates that since 1990, trade liberalisation has helped lift more than one billion people worldwide out of extreme poverty. But most of these gains were concentrated in Asia, where countries like China, India, and Singapore capitalised on strong regional frameworks such as ASEAN and NAFTA. Africa, despite its potential, has seen persistent instability, inequality, and slower economic transformation. Our regional blocs — ECOWAS, SADC, EAC — were founded with grand visions but often lacked the deep integration and enforcement that allowed others to thrive.

Rising challenges: Protectionism and the risk of isolation

Meanwhile, globalisation itself now faces serious cracks. Unilateral tariff measures, protectionist policies, and the rise of economic nationalism are challenging the very principles that built decades of prosperity. The situation is eerily reminiscent of the cold war era, when the Soviet bloc sought autarky — a self-sufficiency model that ultimately deepened poverty and stifled innovation.

Today, we see echoes of that mistake as Sahel states walk away from long-standing alliances and even consider withdrawing from the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). These moves threaten to undo decades of progress, reinforcing the fact that autarky has never eradicated poverty; instead, it breeds ultra-nationalism and instability.

This is why institutions like the WTO and the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) remain vital. They were created to ensure that global trade rules are fair, predictable, and supportive of development. For Africa, the stakes could not be higher. The continent is home to the world’s youngest population, with 72% of its businesses being micro, small, or medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs). These are the entrepreneurs who hold the key to Africa’s economic transformation. But too often, their voices are missing from global trade debates, leaving them vulnerable to the ripple effects of policies shaped thousands of miles away.

At a recently concluded WTO public forum in Geneva themed “enhance, create, preserve”, I had the privilege of joining global leaders to emphasise this point. Trade is not an abstract concept for Africa’s youth — it is a daily struggle and a daily opportunity. Our businesses are ready to grow, but they need frameworks that reduce barriers, lower compliance costs, and open markets.

Africa’s way forward: Digital trade and youth leadership

Technology offers a new frontier of hope. Digital trade, supported by AI, has the power to revolutionise how African businesses connect to global markets. At the forum, I shared my vision for TradeAI, a platform that could guide MSMEs through complex trade frameworks, reduce compliance costs, and open access to cross-border opportunities. The WTO itself projects that artificial intelligence could improve trade efficiency by 40% by 2030. For Africa, this is not just about efficiency — it is about survival and competitiveness in a digital-first economy.

But digital trade cannot thrive in a vacuum. It requires smart regulation, investment in connectivity, and above all, policies that reflect the realities of Africa’s entrepreneurs. The WTO’s push for digital trade, combined with UNCTAD’s focus on sustainable development, can provide the scaffolding for such progress. Yet the real work lies with us: ensuring that African voices, especially those of the youth, shape the frameworks that will determine our future.