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Africa’s Colliding Conflicts Compound Forced Displacement Crisis

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Africa’s Colliding Conflicts Compound Forced Displacement Crisis


As Africa’s conflicts become more regionalized, forcibly displaced populations increasingly face the predicament of fleeing into neighboring countries also experiencing conflict.

Highlights

  • An estimated 45.7 million Africans are forcibly displaced–refugees, internally displaced, or asylum seekers–comprising 4 percent of the total population.
  • This continues a pattern of 15 years of steadily increasing numbers of forcibly displaced populations. Africa remains the continent with largest number of people who are forcibly displaced accounting for 43 percent of the global total.
  • 69 percent of the 45.7 million are displaced within their own countries (IDPs). However, the share of externally displaced has expanded significantly in the past year–largely due to increased refugee flows from Sudan, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Mali, and Burkina Faso.
  • 97 percent of Africa’s forcibly displaced population seek refuge on the continent.

Conflict is the Primary Driver of Forced Displacement


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96 percent of forcibly displaced populations are from countries facing armed conflict.

96 percent of forcibly displaced populations are from countries facing armed conflict, underscoring the centrality of war as a driver to population displacement.

  • 14 of the 15 African countries with the highest levels of forced displacement are facing conflict. The exception is Eritrea, which has seen an exodus of 19 percent of its population given the persistent levels of domestic repression.
  • 9 African countries have reported more than 1 million displaced for each of the past 3 years, highlighting the persistent instability of Africa’s conflicts–for the countries themselves and their regions.

Compounding Crises

8 of the 11 countries hosting the greatest numbers of those displaced across borders are themselves experiencing conflict.

This year saw a 13-percent growth of refugees and asylum seekers being hosted in another African country–11.44 million people–underscoring the intraregional implications of these persistent population flows.

  • 8 of the 11 countries hosting the greatest numbers of those displaced across borders are themselves experiencing conflict. This reflects the growing regionalization of conflicts in the Greater Horn, the Sahel, and the Lake Chad Basin.
  • The deteriorating security in the Sahel has resulted in growing numbers of refugees spilling into Mauritania and other coastal West African countries. Burkina Faso is the source of the bulk of the Sahel’s forcibly displaced population–an estimated 4 million people–nearly a fifth of Burkinabe citizens. These figures are difficult to verify, however, given that the military junta stopped reporting IDP numbers in 2023.

Countries Most Contributing to Forced Displacement in Africa
Country IDPs Refugees and Asylum Seekers Total Displaced Percentage of Country’s Population Displaced (%)
Sudan 10,065,329 4,346,222 14,411,551 29
DRC 5,160,000 1,389,887 6,549,887 6
Somalia 3,228,940 1,185,750 4,414,690 23
Nigeria 3,575,114 501,107 4,076,221 2
South Sudan 944,900 2,397,965 3,342,865 28
Burkina Faso 3,612,535 388,148 4,000,682* 17
Ethiopia 1,747,194 322,796 2,069,990 2
Cameroon 969,273 187,635 1,156,908 4
Central African Republic 446,722 701,830 1,148,552 22
Mali 402,167 412,185 832,815* 3
Eritrea 0 663,058 663,058 19
Niger 459,585 54,710 514,295 2
Mozambique 461,237 9,058 470,295 1
Burundi 7,000 381,731 388,731 3
Chad 225,689 49,041 274,730 1
Rwanda 0 270,366 270,366 2
Total Forcibly Displaced in Africa: 45,737,653

Data sources: IDMC, UNHCR, World Bank (mid-2025 data).

* Estimate.

Sudan is the Locus of Africa’s Forced Displacement Crisis

  • Sudan is the country with the largest number of forcibly displaced (14.4 million people)–a 14-percent increase from a year previously.

Sudan’s forcibly displaced population represents 32 percent of the continental total.

Sudan’s forcibly displaced population represents 32 percent of the continental total. This underscores the brutality of the Sudan conflict, which continues to expand since erupting in 2023.

  • Sudan’s 10.1 million IDPs represent the largest internal displacement of any country globally.
  • Sudan is now the African country with the largest share of its population that is forcibly displaced (29 percent), surpassing South Sudan.
  • Four of the countries with over 1 million people displaced are neighbors of Sudan, underscoring the compounding regional implications of ongoing conflicts.
  • Illustratively, an estimated 800,000 South Sudanese refugees have crossed back into South Sudan since 2023, escaping the spiraling violence in Sudan. Along with them are roughly 380,000 Sudanese refugees who are fleeing into a country that has been devastated by a civil war for more than a decade.

Tenuous Gains in Selected Countries