The World Bank has cautioned that the expiration of the United States’ African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) in late 2025 poses a serious threat to African exports, warning that the loss of preferential access to the U.S. market could undermine economic growth in several Sub-Saharan African countries at a time when the region’s recovery remains fragile.
According to the World Bank’s latest Global Economic Prospects report, economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa improved modestly to an estimated 4.0 percent in 2025, up from 3.7 percent in 2024.
The improvement was supported by easing inflation and higher-than-expected commodity prices, particularly for gold, other precious metals, and coffee, which helped boost fiscal revenues in several countries.
However, the Bank stressed that growth across the region remains uneven and below long-term averages, leaving many economies vulnerable to external shocks.
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Within this fragile recovery, the potential loss of AGOA stands out as a major downside risk. For more than two decades, AGOA has allowed eligible African countries to export thousands of products to the United States duty-free, supporting export-led growth and job creation, particularly in manufacturing and agriculture.
The World Bank warned that unless the program is extended, the end of AGOA would erode the competitiveness of African exports in the U.S. market.
While the report notes that most Sub-Saharan African economies have limited direct exposure to global trade fragmentation, it highlights several countries that are especially vulnerable to the loss of U.S. market access.
Côte d’Ivoire, Kenya, Lesotho, Madagascar, Mauritius, and South Africa were identified as economies that rely heavily on the U.S. market for goods and commodity exports and would therefore face the greatest risks if AGOA preferences are not renewed.
The World Bank explained that without AGOA, exports from these countries would likely face higher tariffs, reduce their competitiveness and potentially lead to lower export volumes.
Such an outcome could have serious implications for employment, particularly in labor-intensive sectors such as textiles, apparel, and agro-processing, where millions of jobs depend on access to external markets.
The warning comes amid broader global trade uncertainties. The World Bank’s baseline projections assume that current bilateral tariff levels remain unchanged throughout the forecast period, but it cautioned that rising trade barriers or increased policy uncertainty could further weaken export performance across Sub-Saharan Africa. These risks are compounded by a sharp reduction in official development assistance since 2024, which has constrained fiscal space and reduced governments’ capacity to cushion the impact of external shocks.
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Looking ahead, the World Bank projects that economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa will strengthen to 4.3 percent in 2026 and 4.7 percent in 2027, supported by stronger investment and export growth. However, the Bank emphasized that these projections depend heavily on a stable global environment and significant improvements in security, particularly in fragile and conflict-affected countries. The failure to extend AGOA, it warned, could derail these projections for several export-dependent economies.
Despite the projected improvement, per capita income growth in the region is expected to average just 2 percent annually in 2026 and 2027, a pace the World Bank says is insufficient to generate enough jobs to absorb the region’s rapidly growing labor force. With an estimated 270 million youths in Sub-Saharan Africa in 2025, the stakes of maintaining access to major export markets remain extremely high.
The World Bank noted that Africa’s growth outlook could improve if AGOA is extended, global growth turns out stronger than expected, commodity prices remain firm, and regional integration continues to deepen.
Expanded duty-free access to China and progress under the African Continental Free Trade Area could also help mitigate external risks. Nonetheless, the Bank underscored that the expiration of AGOA without an extension would represent a significant setback for African exports, jobs, and poverty reduction efforts.
