New York — Two-thirds of the developing world, or ninety-five out of 143 economies, are dependent on commodities for export value, making up 60 percent of their merchandise exports. For the least developed world, this number rises to 80 percent, leaving entire nation’s revenue vulnerable to price swings, fiscal shocks, and evolving trade compositions. Hidden behind the numbers lies a deeper transformation, one disrupting fossil fuel trade, triggering a higher reliance on mineral exports, particularly on mining essential for green technologies.
In 2024, during a special climate panel, on critical energy transition minerals, UN Secretary-General António Guterres remarked, “A world powered by renewables is a world hungry for critical minerals. For developing countries, critical minerals are a critical opportunity – to create jobs, diversify economies, and dramatically boost revenues. But only if they are managed properly.”
Guterres signaled a clear message that this change can indeed boost economies and create jobs, especially in the places which need it most, but only if those countries are then willing to invest in diversification strategies through proper economic management.
At this year’s UN High Level Political Forum Guterres reaffirmed his stance on July 22, stating: “Fossil fuels are outdated. The sun is rising on a new era – the era of clean energy.” Guterres present a six-point action plan forward, which would phase out fossil fuels and secure energy access to all, by outlining methods of financing green transition.
A shift in the tides: oil to ore
Between 2012-2014 and 2021-2023, the share of commodity exports in of global trade have slightly declined, from 35.5 percent to 32.7 percent. At the same time, overall merchandise trade grew by 25.6 percent, with commodity exports growing by 15.5 percent. This 10 percent gap accounts for a 619 billion dollar shortfall due to declining and stagnating energy exports, which currently dominate the commodity trade.
Energy exports once led the commodity trade but are now showing obvious signs of stagnation and future decline. From 2021 to 2023, global energy exports amounted to 3.16 trillion on average, slightly decreasing 1.3 percent from the 2012-2014. The acceleration of renewable energy projects and the UN’s 2030 Agenda have been main proponents in this, driving down the reliance on oil and coal, and improving energy efficiency through global investment in green technologies.
Western Asia, once a dominant region in energy exports, particularly oil, saw its share fall from 31.3 percent to 24.7 percent over the past decade. Russia, once the world’s top energy exporter saw its export value drop by 26.6 percent.
However, in this same period, the United States became the world’s leading energy exporter, driven by its massive quantities of liquefied natural gas and shale oil mining. This shift too even reflects a greener transition, as liquefied natural gas is seen increasingly as a bridge to clean energy, as it presents cleaner effects on the environment, and is overall considered cleaner than oil and coal by a large margin.
In contrast to this overall decline in energy demand, mining exports have been surging. In Asia and Oceania, the regions’ share grew from 33.8 percent to 37.6 percent. Looking at Australia alone, they grew their mining export value from USD 105.7 billion to USD 171 billion due to higher demand from China and other global consumers for metals like copper, cobalt, and lithium. These materials are necessary for solar panels, wind turbines and electric car batteries, which are all considered essential components to a green economy.
Suppliers of the green future: Africa
While much of the world is expanding looking towards the future, Africa is still largely behind in development, creating lags in green agendas. Most of the continent lacks basic access to electricity. Africa is home to twenty of the world’s thirty-three mining export-dependent economies, making them the provider of many materials for green technologies, but not the constructors.
In Western and Eastern Africa, these mining exports make up 65 percent and 57 percent of all merchandise exports. Southern Africa is also particularly reliant, with nations like Botswana presenting mining exports of 91.5 percent. This lack of diversification makes African economies extremely vulnerable to supply chain shifts and price volatility, especially in the event of value chain swaps. Even in countries where mining is not as prevalent like Nigeria, Algeria and Angola, the lowering of oil prices by 20 percent in economies with an 80 percent export value on energy, shows early signs of dangerous fiscal dependency on a lacking financial flow.
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The inevitable shift
Secretary-General of UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) Rebecca Grynspan said: “There is now an opportunity to leverage these new commodities to update our trade regime, promote structural diversification and turn the tide of commodity dependence once and for all.”
The clean energy shift is not theory, it is happening real time and its reshaping supply chains fast. Countries like the U.S. and Australia have successfully adapted their economies to this shift, preparing for a new landscape of green domination. The rise in mining exports supports a demand from advanced economies needing critical minerals, but this financial flow for the exporting countries might not stay forever, especially if more competitors break into the market driving down the price further and further: much like what is happening to oil. A country’s path to clean energy now lies as an indicator of working economic models and the ablution of outdated financial flows.
IPS UN Bureau Report