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Inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index ticked up again in March.The CPI rose 3.5% from March 2023 to this past March, after rising 3.2% year over year in February.March’s year-over-year increase was forecasted to be a higher rate than February’s rate.
US inflation is hot again.
A Wednesday news release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics said the Consumer Price Index increased 3.5% for the 12 months ending in March. The forecast for March’s year-over-year increase in the CPI was 3.4%, a higher rate than the 3.2% increase or the 3.1% increase in February or January respectively.
The rate came in above the forecast and was higher than February’s year-over-year change.
CPI increased 0.4% in March from the preceding month — same as the 0.4% surge in February. That’s also comparable to the forecast of 0.3%.
Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, increased 3.8% year over year in March. That’s above the forecast of 3.7% and same as February’s 3.8%.
Core CPI also rose by 0.4% again. The expected increase was 0.3%.
“The index for shelter rose in March, as did the index for gasoline,” the news release from BLS published on Wednesday said. “Combined, these two indexes contributed over half of the monthly increase in the index for all items.”
The shelter index rose 0.4% again from the preceding month. This index saw a 5.7% rise year over year in March, matching the 5.7% year-over-year increase in February.
Rent of primary residence increased 5.7% year over year, and owners’ equivalent rent of primary residence rose 5.9% year-over-year. Shelter contributed to the bulk of the overall increase in prices over the year.
Energy saw a smaller month-over-month increase in March, with a 1.1% increase from February to March compared to the 2.3% increase in February. Energy didn’t see another year-over-year decline. It actually rose 2.1% after February’s year-over-year decline of 1.9%.
The gas index rose 1.7% month over month after a 3.8% increase. This index climbed 1.3% for the 12 months ending March after a drop of 3.9% for the 12 months ending February.
Food saw a 0.1% increase month over month, and this index saw a 2.2% increase year over year. The index for food away from home is high compared to food at home. Food away from home had a year-over-year increase of 4.2% compared to food at home’s 1.2% rise.
Julia Pollak, chief economist at ZipRecruiter, told Business Insider the jobs report released on Friday was “the Fed’s holy grail: strong job market with non-inflationary growth.”
The US added 303,000 jobs in March, a robust gain after the strong 270,000 gain in February. Pollak said the increases in both job growth and the work week along with the drop in the unemployment rate are “all good signs about the enduring strength of the labor market and its dynamism.” She also noted the slower wage growth, which she said is “good news for a Fed that’s still battling inflation.”
Average hourly earnings increased 4.1% year over year to $34.69 an hour in March, which fell short of the 4.3% year-over-year increase in February.
This is a developing story. Please check back for updates.
