Inflation comes in hotter than expected

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The consumer price index increased 3.1% year over year in January, higher than the forecast of 2.9%.That’s also below the 3.4% rise in December.The CPI rose 0.3% month over month in January.

Inflation as measured by the consumer price index, or CPI, came in above the forecast for January.

January’s year-over-year rise in the CPI was expected to be 2.9%, which would have been a massive slowdown from December’s 3.4%. According to Tuesday’s release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, this year-over-year change was 3.1%, slightly higher than the forecast.

CPI increased by 0.3% month over month in January. That’s just above the forecast of 0.2% and above December’s month-over-month increase of 0.2%.

Core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, rose 3.9% from January 2023 to January 2024 after a 3.9% increase from December 2022 to December 2023. The new reading came in above the forecast of 3.7%.

Core CPI surged 0.4% month-over-month in January. An increase of 0.3% for January was expected.

“Consumer sentiment has recently moved sharply higher partly because of improving outlooks for inflation and income,” Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst for Bankrate, said in commentary before the CPI data was published. “One added benefit of the moderation of inflation is the emergence of positive real wages.”

The Consumer Sentiment Index from the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers climbed from 69.7 in December to 79.0 to kick off 2024. The Index of Consumer Expectations also massively surged — from 67.4 in December to 77.1 in January. Additionally, New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations data shows the one-year ahead median expected inflation rate had largely been cooling but stayed at 3.0% in January.

This is a developing story. Please check back for updates.