The robotaxi market is expanding rapidly, but regulation, consumer acceptance and commercially-viable operating models remain key challenges. (Image created via Gemini)
The global robotaxi fleet is forecast to grow from 6 500 vehicles at the end of 2025, to 1.53 million units by 2036, as driverless services expand into more markets.
According to a new report by market research firm Berg Insight, passenger fare revenue from commercial robotaxi services is expected to rise from $260 million in 2025, to $158.7 billion in 2036, representing a compound annual growth rate of 79.2%.
Driverless robotaxi services are currently concentrated in the US, China and Middle East, while launches have recently taken place in Europe, South Korea and Singapore. Berg Insight expects additional services to enter more markets in the coming years.
According to the report, robotaxi technology providers occupy a central position in the emerging value chain, developing level four automated driving systems and integrating software, sensors, computing platforms and vehicle-control systems.
“The automated driving system and the data used to train and validate the system are the main proprietary assets,” says Martin Cederqvist, senior analyst at Berg Insight.
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“Some providers also oversee mapping, simulation, validation, fleet-data infrastructure and remote assistance. Avride, Baidu’s Apollo Go, May Mobility, Mobileye, Momenta, Motional, Pony.ai, Tesla, Waymo, Wayve, WeRide and Zoox are among the leading technology providers.”
According to the report, robotaxis have evolved from limited autonomous-vehicle trials into commercial ride-hailing services, with the automated driving system performing the driving task either with or without an onboard safety driver.
“The global ecosystem extends well beyond the vehicles themselves, encompassing sensors, computing platforms, automated-driving software, vehicle-control systems and connectivity infrastructure.
“The technology stack includes cameras, radar, LiDAR, ultrasonic sensors and inertial navigation systems, alongside perception, sensor-fusion, localisation, mapping, motion-planning and control layers,” according to the report.
Robotaxis also rely on telematics, over-the-air updates, fleet monitoring, geofencing and remote assistance or tele-operation.
Automotive manufacturers are also taking a changing role in the sector, with Berg Insight identifying original equipment manufacturer involvement as a key area of development in the global market.
“Carmakers are taking more selective positions in robotaxi services, alongside the emergence of privately-owned autonomous vehicles being used in robotaxi operations and autonomous-driving providers launching services without mobility-platform partners.”
Mobility platforms provide the customer-facing infrastructure for robotaxi services, including applications for bookings, payments, pricing and customer support.
These companies, the report notes, can also use established customer bases and travel data to improve the matching of passengers with vehicles and increase utilisation.
“Mobility platform providers can leverage their established brands, large user bases and proprietary data on travel patterns to reach a large customer base, match supply with demand and increase vehicle utilisation,” adds Erica Rickard, IOT analyst at Berg Insight.
Leading mobility platform providers include North America’s Uber and Lyft, Europe’s Bolt, and China’s DiDi, CaoCao Mobility and T3 Mobility.
The industry’s next major challenge is expanding services across cities and countries, while maintaining commercially-viable unit economics.
“Scalability will depend partly on how much of the underlying technology and operating model can be reused between markets. Advances in end-to-end artificial intelligence (AI) and large driving models could reduce the engineering required for local deployments, while purpose-built vehicles could reduce costs once production reaches sufficient volumes,” asserts Berg.
Local data requirements will differ between markets and technology systems, while commercial viability will depend on generating sufficient passenger demand at fares that cover the full cost of delivering the service.
“The companies that successfully combine advances in AI and vehicle design, build effective partnerships, meet safety and regulatory requirements and develop commercially-viable business models will be best placed to scale across markets,” concludes Cederqvist.
