From South Sudan to Guatemala, learn how WFP’s anticipatory projects ensure vulnerable people can better prepare and respond to weather shocks.
What remains today of the seasonal Singaita River, in South Sudan‘s Eastern Equatoria state, is a long stretch of sand cutting through a landscape scorched by relentless heat. Fields that should be green with sorghum and maize lie brown and brittle. Water points are shrinking, forcing women and girls to walk ever longer distances for the precious liquid.
Standing beside the dry riverbed, Lokitoe Lokale looks to the sky each day, searching for rain that has yet to come. For the mother of four, the current drought is measured in the number of daily meals she can prepare for her children.
“There is so much hunger here in Kapoeta North,” she says of the county where she lives. “The sun is burning like fire and there has been no rain. There is a serious food shortage. There is no sorghum. Everything has dried up.”
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Cracked earth and failed harvests are not limited to South Sudan. This year, swathes of Africa, Asia and Latin America are expected to be hit by drought, but also storms and floods – and some a mix of both – which experts link to a potentially record-breaking El Niño weather phenomenon.
For the world’s poorest and hungriest people, the effects could be devastating, carrying over into 2027. Recent World Food Programme (WFP) analysis finds this latest El Niño could push nearly 50 million people into acute hunger – up by more than one-fifth from today’s numbers. In Africa alone, the African Development Bank estimates the weather pattern could shrink gross output by up to US$20 billion in affected countries and trigger mass migration.
But WFP is working with governments and humanitarian partners to avert such worst-case scenarios under an approach known as “anticipatory action”. Together, we are helping vulnerable communities prepare before disasters strike, through early-action initiatives such as cash assistance, farming support, insurance and early-warning information – in countries including Guatemala, Madagascar, Pakistan and South Sudan.
“The sooner we help families to prepare for these climate shocks, the greater our ability to save lives and protect livelihoods,” says Carl Skau, WFP’s Acting Executive Director.
Across Africa, Asia and Latin America, these programmes are giving vulnerable communities the tools to strengthen their food security and resilience before El Niño takes its toll – tools that can sharply reduce the costs of responding later.
South Sudan: acting before the river runs dry
In South Sudan, the below-average rainfall and soaring temperatures, likely linked to El Niño, could deepen one of the world’s biggest hunger crises. But well before the drought’s worst impacts, humanitarian and Government actors were responding.
In May, WFP distributed anticipatory cash assistance to 53,000 people in two of Eastern Equatoria’s hardest-hit states, including Lokale’s native Kapoeta North.
In July, we joined the South Sudanese authorities and aid partners in triggering the country’s first drought anticipatory action plan, targeting nearly 66,000 people.
“The assistance came when we needed it most. Without it, we would have suffered much more.” – South Sudanese farmer Lokitoe Lokale of WFP’s anticipatory support.
Families received early-warning messages to prepare for the dry months ahead, along with support and information in key areas such as nutrition, livestock care and water management. The support can also reduce cases of gender-based violence, which can increase with climate shocks by intensifying economic and other stresses and breaking down community bonds.
“By delivering assistance early, we helped families protect what they had and strengthened their resilience,” says Mutinta Chimuka, WFP Country Director in South Sudan.
Lokale used the WFP cash to buy basic staples like maize flour and beans – helping also to support the local economy. “The assistance came when we needed it most,” she says. “Without it, we would have suffered much more.”
Chad, Malawi and Madagascar: mitigating weather extremes
Further west, in the Sahel, below-average rainfall in Chad has similarly triggered El Niño early mitigation efforts in seven rain-dependent provinces. This included WFP and partners distributing drought early-warning messages and cash assistance to more than 170,000 people.
Such initiatives aim to offset grim WFP projections that El Niño could push 7.4 million more people into acute food insecurity across West and Central Africa, where WFP is prepared to respond to both droughts and floods.
Agropastoralists like Oumar Abderamane Mbodou, from the west-central Chadian village of Toulba, are using the WFP cash to support their families and sustain their livelihoods, including by investing in livestock feed and rainwater catchment systems.
“Without these coping mechanisms, many animals would not survive,” Mbodou says.
This latest El Niño follows its punishing 2023-24 predecessor, which unleashed massive floods in Eastern Africa and severe drought in many parts of southern Africa. Together, they left a trail of failed harvests and hunger.
Now, countries are preparing against more El Niño mayhem. That’s the case of Malawi, expected to be pummelled by both flash floods and dry spells. With 2.6 million people projected to experience acute hunger during the 2026-27 between-harvest lean season, WFP is scaling up contingency planning, and preparing assistance for 600,000 of the most vulnerable in the southern part of the country.
In Madagascar, El Niño risks aggravating an already grim forecast of 3.7 million people facing crisis or worse food insecurity during the October-January lean season. With a Government-led drought-monitoring mechanism, MapTool, projecting severe drought in the south, WFP is preparing to assist 75,000 people. Our package of anticipatory interventions includes cash assistance, nutrition support, and early-warning information.
“WFP has supported the Government in establishing MapTool, making Madagascar the first country in Africa to take full ownership of this drought-monitoring mechanism,” said Tania Goossens, WFP Country Director in Madagascar.
Earlier this year, WFP rolled out anticipatory cash assistance and warnings ahead of a very different weather emergency: the massive and deadly Cyclone Gezani that tore through the island, flattening buildings and uprooting trees, affecting over 680,000 people.
“We were able to set aside provisions to face the difficult days that would follow,” recalls Pauline Tsarasoa, from eastern Madagascar.
Pakistan: from floods to drought
Asia too is braced for a mix of extreme weather. This includes Pakistan, where the ongoing monsoon season is causing localized flooding in northern parts of the country, while El Niño increases the risk of drought in the south and west. To help communities prepare before disasters strike, WFP and UN partners are supporting the Government of Pakistan’s first national anticipatory action strategy.
WFP and authorities are identifying high-risk districts for both floods and droughts, and establishing early action triggers, so households can receive assistance before the worst hits.
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We are also building on experience. The 2025 floods in Pakistan’s eastern Khairpur District, for instance, saw WFP and the Food and Agriculture Organization provide anticipatory financial assistance and warning messages to thousands of vulnerable people.
“In the past, whenever floods came, we had no savings,” recalls Nadia Ali, a daily labourer from Khairpur. “This financial assistance provided much-needed relief and helped us cope with the challenges, including allowing us to escape during the floods.”
Protecting harvests in Central America’s Dry corridor
Tens of thousands of kilometres away, in Central America’s Dry Corridor, farmers like Teresa Gómez are similarly grateful for WFP’s early action support reaching more than 376,000 people – before an El Niño-projected drought sears a region spanning four countries.
Gómez sees the changing weather in her own Uriles Pinalón community, in southeastern Guatemala. Rains no longer arrive when they should, foreshadowed by the May zompopos, or giant queen ants, emerging from the earth. But WFP aid, including grain silos to store and preserve staple maize and bean harvests, is cushioning dozens of communities like hers for the long dry spell ahead.
“Before, when the corn was finished, it was necessary to buy it” and spend precious savings, Gómez says.
From another small farming community in neighbouring Honduras, farmer Federico Medina Bardales is also no stranger to failed harvests over his 69 years. He is similarly grateful for WFP’s early support, which includes technical training, farm inputs and food rations for 36,000 vulnerable people.
“This has been a huge help,” he says. “We are in a time when work cannot be found. Planting is difficult.”
WFP’s anticipatory action initiatives are made possible thanks to donors including Austria, Germany, Ireland, the Republic of Korea (KOICA), Norway (NORAD), and the United Nations CERF fund.