Nairobi — The United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) has warned that climate-related disasters are increasingly disrupting education across Eastern and Southern Africa, potentially leading to as much as $380 billion in lost future earnings by 2050 if urgent action is not taken.
A new report by UNICEF and consulting firm Dalberg, titled Protecting Children’s Learning Futures: Quantifying Climate-Related Loss and Damage in Eastern and Southern Africa, shows that climate shocks have already caused an estimated $1.3 billion in direct damage to schools and teaching infrastructure.
The disruptions have affected learning for about 130 million children across the region.
The analysis further estimates that these disruptions have already resulted in up to $140 billion in lost future earnings, with the figure projected to rise sharply as climate impacts intensify, potentially affecting up to 520 million students in the coming decades.
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“Children are paying the highest price for a crisis they did not create,” said Etleva Kadilli, Regional Director for Eastern and Southern Africa at UNICEF.
“For the first time, this report shows the scale of climate-related loss and damage to education, yet the impact on children remains largely invisible in financing decisions. This must change.”
The report highlights how increasingly frequent and severe extreme weather events — including floods, droughts, cyclones, and heatwaves — are destroying school infrastructure, forcing prolonged closures, and widening inequality in access to education.
Girls, children with disabilities, and marginalized communities are among the most affected.
Case studies from countries including Kenya, Somalia, Mozambique, Ethiopia, and Zambia illustrate the growing human and economic toll of climate disruptions on education systems.
In Zambia alone, floods and droughts between 2005 and 2024 disrupted learning for approximately 5 million students and caused $60 million in immediate infrastructure losses, while reducing future earnings by up to $5 billion.
Rural children worst hit
The severe 2023-2024 El Niño drought in Southern Africa, one of the worst in decades, left nearly 10 million people without reliable food, water, or electricity. Schools were forced to shorten learning hours, close temporarily, or send students home early.
Rural children and girls were disproportionately affected, with many forced to leave school to support household livelihoods or facing increased risks of early marriage.
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Despite the growing scale of the crisis, education currently receives less than 1.5 percent of global climate finance, leaving school systems vulnerable to repeated cycles of damage and recovery.
The report notes that investing in climate-resilient education infrastructure can deliver significant economic returns, with every $1 invested generating up to $13 through reduced damage, sustained learning continuity, and improved long-term productivity.
“Without stronger prioritisation in climate finance, education will continue to bear the brunt of climate impacts, driving repeated disruption,” Kadilli said.
“We must design education systems that anticipate shocks, protect early and foundational learning, and keep schools open. Otherwise, the true cost of climate loss and damage will be measured in lost human potential.”
The warning comes as the board of the Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage prepares to meet in Livingstone later this week, where policymakers are expected to discuss strategies to strengthen climate resilience and recovery financing across vulnerable regions.
UNICEF is urging governments, donors, and international climate funds to integrate education more firmly into national climate frameworks, apply climate-risk planning to education budgets, and scale up dedicated climate financing for schools, particularly in regions facing recurring climate shocks.
The agency stressed that safeguarding education systems is critical not only for protecting children’s rights but also for sustaining long-term economic growth and development across Africa.