An enormous danger and already a human and economic reality for over three weeks! The war launched against Iran is further exacerbating the turmoil and anxieties in a world already reeling and powerless in the face of the conflict unfolding in Ukraine and the open massacres in Gaza. Not to mention the civil wars in Africa, particularly those devastating Sudan and the Sahel as well as the war waged by the Afghan Talibans both at home and against Pakistan.
A world where respect of the values and principles of « understanding, peace, and cooperation between states »–once the basis of the international system–is now being openly challenged by its founders and institutional guardians. And that is to the detriment of all countries, not just those in the Global South! The UN Charter, particularly Article 2, paragraph 7 concerning non-interference in the internal affairs of states, serves as the moral and political capital of Western democracies and a convenient cover for their colonial past and the crimes of the 20th century two World Wars. A Charter that must be protected and particularly by Western democracies, once its most powerful beacon and the foundation of their moral renewal!
The ongoing war against Iran will long mark the 21st century. Indeed, new information technologies, accessible to everyone worldwide, make censorship, double standards and information monopolies impossible. Everywhere, populations, including the most ordinary ones, are being alerted.
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Beyond the momentary contradictions, inherent to the nature of governments, the United States of America has generally established itself in the 20th century as the land of freedom, transparency, and above all, peaceful political alternation to power. Political interference, particularly in Latin America, and other external interventions often appeared as exceptions confirming the USA transparent political running. Administration that is open to free criticism, both internal and external. In the current war against Iran, indeed de facto against the entire Middle East and far beyond, against the global economy, the role of the United States, a country increasingly defined by its socio-cultural diversity, remains essential, vital to all. President Trump, a declared candidate for the Nobel Peace Prize, is well-positioned to at least halt the ongoing war, which is certainly destroying its Iranian enemy but fragilizing also America’s friends both within and outside the Arabian Gulf region.
Diplomatic muddles between a large number of European Union member states and the United States of America, once unnatural but now public, on the one hand and with Russia on the other, cannot help but raise concerns, even alarm, in other regions of the world that are far more fragile. Familiar to anarchic and destructive crises and civil wars, a number of African states, though not them only, should be more worried. A West riddled, even shaken, with doubt, an East reduced to a minimum and a South more Global than “Third World”, such is our today world full of doubts and thus of dangers.
The threat of this international context lies on the fact that it does not seem to be based on political logics but rather on an international situation disrupted at several levels: political, economic and social. Worse, some of the most positive achievements of the post- cold war era, which form its very foundation, feel themselves now under threat! Including the diplomatic practices or peace through tolerance, dialogue and negotiations. Not by the primacy use of arms.
With the ongoing war led by Israel and the USA against Iran, an unexpected upheaval, different from the one that followed the fall of the Berlin Wall, November 10 1989, seems underway. No doubt it is. Influence of president Trump’s herculean discourse may well be a factor. Certainly more personally tolerant than he appears, the US president has made his marks through his style–more New Yorker, thus remaining always on the headlines, « walking on a tightrope”. The strength and directness of his message, « America First, » inevitably encourage the resurgence of nationalism elsewhere and thus the decline of the rather bonding universalism.
In the short term, that political speech doesn’t either facilitate the understanding and the cooperation between states or the peaceful coexistence between peoples. A globalizing nationalism, even though it risks becoming equal to ethnic exclusion, violence, and deadly civil wars, threatens the many gains achieved by the Cold War end. It stands in stark contrast to postwar diplomacy, overall branded by an open internationalism and a resilient economic prosperity. Hence, are today ongoing political, economic and diplomatic upheavals prefiguring the beginning of a new era in international relations as 1989 but in a reverse sense? While history doesn’t repeat itself, that question deserves close attention from various international and regional organizations and especially, while they still can, from civil society organizations as well as from independent Medias.
These uncertainties, amplified by widespread confusion and self-serving nationalisms, threaten peace and cooperation throughout the world. Worse, they open vast spaces to questionable governance by states thus freed from international organizations scrutiny, particularly those dedicated to human rights and the fight against corruption.
Indeed, the most stable while still the most reassuring camp that of democracies is currently the most threatened by the present international situation. An informal but tangible rift between its members does undermine its strategic foundations – freedoms, economy, and defense – and thus its universal message. Worse, an armed conflict within its own background, though still territorially contained, has erupted and four years lasting in… Ukraine. A first in Europe since 1940! Hence, the ongoing resentments between its member states, still diplomatic, but unhelpful to all.
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While affected on the grounds, a few Sahel states, hooked on their recent past and colonial history, still cling to a timeless narrative. The current context and the preparation for a more promising future seem unappealing to their leaderships. That approach, no doubt a heritage of the cold war era, often renders them indifferent, even insensitive, to the tragic local realities and to the ongoing international transformations.
In our era of tragic upheavals and confusion at super powers level, to the global South and its fragile states, in particular those of the Sahel, pragmatism remains the only approach to crises prevention and conflicts management in face to the dangerous return to tribalism and impunity of corruption.
In fine Ultimately, a renewed confidence in democracy, and therefore in the United States as its model, remains crucial for peace and prosperity worldwide. Today, both are threatened by the war against Iran. This war also affects Arab monarchies, which, beyond the legality common to all established governments, enjoy a historical legitimacy. Open, without demagoguery, to close relations with the United States, including the acknowledged recognition of Israel, they should not witness their most vital economies–water, electricity, physical infrastructure and indeed oil exposed to devastation. Therefore, ending the war with Iran should protect them and strengthen Washington’s credibility.