There is anxiety that Nigerians may continue to pay more for Premium Motor Spirit, PMS, also known as petrol alongside Automotive Gas Oil, called diesel as the price of crude oil rose to above $100 per barrel, yesterday.
Many Nigerians had looked forward to lower fuel energy cost, following a drop on Wednesday to $92, but after escalations in the United States and Israel war on Iran, with Iran’s new supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, insisting that the critical Straits of Hormuz will remain essentially closed as a tool of pressure, crude oil prices rose.
Both Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Nigerian National Petroleum Company, NNPC, Limited, had announced petrol price reduction on Tuesday and Wednesday, and Nigerians had hoped the price will drop further, but with the rise in crude oil price in the international market, such expectations may be short lived.
Oil price had Wednesday dropped to $88 per barrel from $110 the previous day after the International Energy Agency, IEA, reported that its 32-member countries had unanimously agreed to release 400 million barrels of oil from their reserves to cushion the effect of the closure of Straits of Hormuz and the shock on oil supply.
Follow us on WhatsApp | LinkedIn for the latest headlines
However, following the defiant posture of Khamenei and his threat to sustain the blockage, prices starting ticking up.
Vanguard checks revealed that crude oil price increased to beween $96 to $117 per barrel, depending on grade.
Meanwhile, as at yesterday, petrol price remains high at N1,200 per litre and above across the country.
Depot owners, marketers maintain N1, 200, N1, 300 per litre
Checks by vanguard showed that in Lagos, depot owners – Matrix, Menj, NIPCO, Pinnacle and Rainoil sold the product at N1,200, N1,180, N1,175, and N1,200 per litre respectively.
The checks showed that in Warri, depot owners such as, Danmarna, Matrix, Parker, Prudent and Zamson – sold it at N1,200, N1,205, N1,200, N1,204 and N1,200 per litre, respectively.
In Port Harcourt, Bulk Strategic, Liquid Bulk, Masters, Matrix and Sigmund sold it at N1, 200, N1,150, N1,215, N1,220 and N1,215 per litre respectively.
Also, in Calabar, depot owners – Dozzy, Fynefield, Matrix, NorthWest and Wabeco — sold at N1,195, N1,200, N1,205, N1,200 and N195 per litre respectively.
Transporters, commuters, others lament high fuel prices
In interviews with Vanguard, many transporters and commuters, who pleaded to be anonymous, lamented their ordeals, while calling on the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority, NMDPRA, to intervene and compel oil marketers to adjust pump price without further delay.
One of them said: “The operators, especially depot owners are always fast to adjust upward prices in their favour. However, they always find it difficult to adjust downward in favour of consumers.”
NNPC reduces petrol price to N1,130 in Lagos, N1,165 in Abuja
Despite the rise in crude price, NNPC Limited has reduced the pump price of petrol at its retail outlets to N1,130 per litre in Lagos and N1,165 per litre in Abuja.
The reduction, which took effect on Wednesday, represents a drop of N100 from the previous price of N1,230 per litre in Lagos and N95 from N1,260 per litre in Abuja.
In Lagos, the new price was observed at NNPC filling stations located along Isheri Oshun Road, Apple Junction and Ago Palace Way.
Similarly, in Abuja, the national oil company adjusted its pump price to N1,165 per litre at its retail outlets in Jabi and Wuse.
The price cut comes as oil marketers are yet to reflect a recent reduction in the gantry price of petrol by the Dangote Petroleum Refinery.
Checks by Vanguard indicated that the decision was taken by the company before the latest rise in crude oil price and other developments in the global market with implications on the domestic market.
Downstream undergoing structural transition — Prof Wumi
However, reacting in a telephone interview with Vanguard, Prof. Wumi Iledare, a Petroleum Economist, said: “What we are observing in Nigeria today is not merely a simple increase in petrol prices; rather, it reflects price volatility typical of a market undergoing structural transition. Nigeria is moving from a long period of administered pricing and heavy import dependence toward a more market-driven downstream petroleum sector.
“In such an environment, pricing behaviour is influenced not only by current supply conditions but also by expectations about future replacement costs. Marketers and depot operators often rely on what economists call adaptive expectations — meaning that recent price movements, exchange rate signals, and anticipated supply conditions shape their pricing decisions.
“Even with the crude-for-naira supply arrangement and the emergence of domestic refining capacity such as the Dangote Refinery, the market has not yet reached a stable equilibrium between domestic supply and imports. As long as uncertainty exists regarding crude supply to refineries, logistics, foreign exchange dynamics, and replacement costs, short-term volatility in pump prices is not unexpected.
“Ultimately, the key issue is market stability rather than short-term price movements. As Nigeria deepens domestic refining, ensures reliable crude supply to local refineries, and maintains a transparent and predictable pricing framework, we should expect volatility to moderate over time.
“In economic terms, stability comes when supply certainty meets clear market signals. When domestic refining becomes consistently reliable and market participants have confidence in supply continuity, pricing behaviour will gradually align more closely with underlying fundamentals rather than expectations.
“So, what we are witnessing today is largely a transition phase in Nigeria’s evolving downstream petroleum market, and the policy priority should be to strengthen the conditions that allow that market to stabilize and function efficiently.
“Indeed, volatility in petrol prices today reflects a market in transition–from import dependence and administrative pricing to domestic refining and market discovery.”
Straits of Hormuz will remain closed, says Iran’s Supreme leader in first message
Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei had said in a message that Tehran believes in friendship with its neighbours, but stressed that his country will continue to target US bases in those countries if they are not shut down.
In his first message, Mojtaba Khamenei said: “We only targeted these military bases (and) we will continue, we will have to continue and do so.”
The Supreme Leader said the US and Israel must pay compensation for their actions, referring only to the two countries as “the enemy.”
Khamenei also thanked Iran’s allies and proxies in the region, which he called the “Resistance Front.” Specifically mentioning Houthi rebels in Yemen, Hezbollah in Lebanon and the pro-Iranian Iraqi resistance movement, Khamenei said Iran considers them its “best friends.” He urged the groups to continue fighting.
A portion of Khamenei’s message was used to honour his father and predecessor, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. “I had the honour of seeing his body after his martyrdom. What I saw was a mountain of strength,” he said.
He directly referenced the strike at Shajareh Tayyiba school in Minab, which state media said killed at least 168 children and 14 teachers. “We will be especially sensitive regarding the blood of our children,” he said while promising revenge.
This is even as Iranian state-linked media outlets, Fars News Agency and Nournews, have denied reports that the wife of Iran’s late supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, died of injuries sustained when the United States and Israel attacked Iran.
CNN quoted Nournews, which is affiliated with Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, as saying that the “wife of the martyred revolutionary leader is alive, and the initial news published about her martyrdom was incorrect.”
The outlets, according to CNN, did not provide additional details about her condition or explain the discrepancy with earlier reports.
Infrastructure under attack
Crude oil prices are jumping also on a fresh wave of Iranian strikes aimed at Gulf energy targets.
The IEA, yesterday, warned that the war “is creating the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market.”
Retaliatory missiles and drone attacks have brought shipping through the Straits of Hormuz almost to a halt. Energy infrastructure across the region has also been targeted.
Bahrain said an Iranian attack hit fuel tanks in Muharraq, while drones struck fuel tanks at Oman’s Salalah port. Saudi Arabia said it had intercepted two drones heading towards its Shaybah oil field.
Oil giants in the Gulf have meanwhile had to reduce their production owing to a lack of storage capacity.
Markets rattled additionally by the risk of prolonged conflict
While US President Donald Trump has said the war could end soon, Iran has warned it could wage a long conflict that would destroy the world economy.
“From a market perspective, the problem is that investors are increasingly pricing in a more protracted conflict that causes extensive economic damage,” said Deutsche Bank analyst Jim Reid.
The IEA warned that there were “no signs of a de-escalation in hostilities or a clear timeline for a recovery in flows through the Strait.”
Why 400m oil release has not eased oil markets.
International Energy Agency member countries agreed on Wednesday to release 400 million barrels of oil from their reserves, the largest amount ever.
The IEA move was aimed at easing the immediate impact of the Middle East war on energy markets.
The United States alone, the biggest consumer and producer of crude, will gradually supply 172 million barrels over three months, or 40 per cent of its current reserves.
But, analysts have said that the move was too small to offset the disruption triggered by American-Israeli attacks against Iran on February 28.
The release falls “far short of the supply losses we are seeing from the Persian Gulf”, noted commodities strategists at ING bank.
According to the IEA, daily global crude production is down at least 8.0 million barrels, with an additional 2.0 million related to petroleum products shut off.
“It seems unlikely that the flow of reserves can make up for the lost flow of production,” said Neil Wilson, a strategist at Saxo UK investor.
“This is a temporary and limited solution, the key is to reopen the Strait of Hormuz” which borders Iran and under normal circumstances allows for the passing of about one fifth of the world’s crude.
Output drops to 1.315 million bpd — OPEC
Meanwhile, Nigeria’s oil output, excluding condensate dropped month-on-month, MoM to 1.314 million barrels per day in February 2026 from 1.459 million bpd in January, according to the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC.
In its March 2026 Monthly Oil Market Report released, yesterday, OPEC said the output was based on data obtained from direct communication.
When data obtained from secondary sources were considered, OPEC put the nation’s output at 1.460 million bpd, indicating a marginal drop from 1.488 million bpd produced in January 2026.
The data further showed that Nigeria did not meet its OPEC and budget 2026 targets of 1.5 million bpd and 1.84 million bpd, respectively even though the price has risen in excess of the $64.85 per barrel.
An expert, who pleaded to remain anonymous, said: “From all indications the Federal Government would likely generate additional revenue based on the current high price and limited volumes exported to the global market but Nigerians would suffer as they continue to pay high prices for petrol and other petroleum products.”
6 vessels attacked amid reports of Iranian drone boats, sea mines
Explosive-laden Iranian boats appear to have attacked two fuel tankers in Iraqi waters, setting them ablaze and killing one crew member, after projectiles struck four vessels in Gulf waters, according to reports.
The ships targeted in late-night ‘ attacks on Wednesday in the Gulf near Iraq were the Marshall Islands-flagged Safesea Vishnu and the Zefyros, which had loaded fuel cargoes in Iraq, two Iraqi port officials told the Reuters news agency. One Iraqi port security source said the Zefyros was flagged Malta.
Sign up for free AllAfrica Newsletters
Get the latest in African news delivered straight to your inbox
“We recovered the body of a foreign crew member from the water,” one port security official said as Iraqi rescue teams continued searching for missing seafarers.
“A boat belonging to the Iraqi Ports Company rescued 25 crew members from the two vessels, and the fires are still burning on both ships,” Farhan al-Fartousi, director general of the state-run General Company for Ports of Iraq, told Reuters.
An Indian crew member on board a United States-owned crude oil tanker was killed when it was attacked near Basra, Iraq, on Wednesday, India’s embassy in Baghdad said, yesterday.s
Nigeria should leverage global oil price hikes by boosting production and securing pipelines, while saving windfall revenues in fiscal buffers. Simultaneously, the government must shield citizens from inflation through enhanced refining and targeted social protection. Long-term stability requires diversifying the economy beyond oil to reduce vulnerability to external geopolitical shocks.
—Rotn. Adeleke Olubanwo,Publisher
As former CRAN President, I urge the Federal Government to proactively cushion shocks from the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict. Volatile oil prices spike inflation and living costs. Government must subsidize transportation and food while boosting crude production by tackling theft and vandalism. Practical steps are vital to ensure Nigerians benefit from global price hikes rather than suffering their consequences.
–Odita Sunday,Editor-in-Chief
The Nigerian government must urgently address the soaring prices of food, essential commodities, and petroleum products. Implementing subsidies, alongside strict regulations to checkmate arbitrary costs, is essential to protect the public. A government’s primary role is to serve as a shock absorber, ensuring that economic volatility does not crush the welfare of its most vulnerable citizens.
–Ifueko Oviasu, Entrepreneur
To ensure stability, the Nigerian government must prioritize energy independence, foreign reserves, and local modular refineries, while mandating an 80% reduction in imports and returning subsidies. A government exists to cushion economic shocks for its people; like a car’s shock absorber, its duty is to ensure that every bump is not felt by the passengers.
–Erhahi Emmanuel, Entrepreneur
The President should address the nation to acknowledge public hardship and explain the external drivers of the current crisis. An interim subsidy is needed to stabilize fuel prices and essential costs. Simultaneously, increasing crude supply to the Dangote Refinery will reduce import dependency and production expenses. Ultimately, cheaper fuel ensures more affordable goods and services.
–Ukhun E. Anthony, Entrepreneur
The U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict destabilizes global economies, yet Nigeria remains reactive. Currently, 40% of crude meant for local refineries is sold to foreign firms, who resell to Dangote in dollars. Government must fix refineries and prioritize selling crude in Naira to Dangote. Stop funding unprofitable coastal highways and focus on easing the economic strangulation of Nigerians.
–Iyke Newman, National PRO, EUN