Viral Kenyan constituency poll results fake, pollster Mizani Africa says
IN SHORT: Although Mizani Africa published an opinion poll on the Likoni constituency race, the figures circulating widely online are inaccurate. The viral graphic does not align with the firm’s results released on 17 January 2026.
A Facebook post shows a graphic of what it says are the latest opinion poll results for Kenya’s Likoni constituency.
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Likoni constituency is in Mombasa county on Kenya’s south coast, about 490 km from Nairobi, the country’s capital.
The graphic, branded with the name Mizani Africa, asks: “If elections were held today, who would you vote for as the next MP for Likoni Constituency?”
It features photos of several aspirants alongside percentage figures, with Miraj Abdillah leading at 44.6%, followed by Mishi Mboko at 20.5% and Mohammed Mwahima at 18.4%. Other candidates, including Mwanahamisi Hamadi, are listed with lower percentages, along with the categories “Others” and “Undecided.”
Mizani Africa is a Kenyan research and public opinion polling firm that conducts surveys on governance, public policy and electoral politics. Polls attributed to such organisations carry significant weight as they may shape public perception, influence campaign strategies and affect how voters and political actors interpret candidates’ popularity, especially when widely shared on social media.
Kenya is due to hold its next general election in August 2027, when voters will elect the president, members of parliament, governors, senators, women representatives and members of county assemblies.
Polls like the one in question often draw attention because they appear to offer early insight into voter preferences, even though such results can shift over time and depend heavily on how, when and where the poll was conducted.
The graphic has been published here, here and here.
But is it legitimate? We checked.
Fake poll
We checked Mizani Africa’s official website, where the firm typically publishes its opinion poll results, and found no record of any opinion poll for Likoni constituency.
We also reviewed Mizani Africa’s official Facebook and X accounts, and found no posts with results matching the circulating poll.
On 10 January 2026, Mizani Africa dismissed the graphic as “FAKE” on its social media pages.
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“This Likoni MP ‘poll’ is NOT from Mizani Africa. It is fabricated and misleading. Always verify polls using official Mizani Africa platforms only,” the firm said.
On 17 January, the firm published a poll on its Facebook account, showing Mboko leading with 54.9%, followed by Hamadi at 21.2%. The other candidates shared the remaining votes, while 5.6% of respondents were undecided, making the poll significantly different from the version circulating online.
The opinion poll with Abdillah in the lead is not from Mizani Africa and should be ignored.