Predictors of financial access and implications for domestic capital mobilisation
Key findings
- Financial inclusion in Africa operates on two distinct but overlapping tracks. Ownership of mobile-money accounts is far more widespread than ownership of traditional bank accounts, indicating that digital platforms have become the primary gateway to financial services for a majority of Africans.
- Both bank and mobile-money access remain deeply stratified by socioeconomic status. Key predictors of ownership include:
- Household assets and employment: Household assets are the strongest predictor, and employed individuals are significantly more likely to own a bank account or a mobile-money account than the unemployed.
- Education and location: Higher education and urban residence are positively associated with bank- and mobile-money-account ownership.
- Gender and poverty: Men are more likely to own bank or mobile-money accounts than women, and higher levels of lived poverty are a major barrier to access.
- Generational differences: Bank accounts are more common among older populations, while mobile money is concentrated among younger demographics.
- Migration aspirations: Individuals considering emigration are more likely to hold financial accounts, suggesting a link between financial preparedness and migration intentions.
- Crucially, financial inclusion is not driven by individual characteristics alone. Our multilevel regression analysis shows that country-level context accounts for a substantial share of the variation in account ownership – 28% for bank accounts and 41% for mobile-money accounts before individual-level factors are introduced. Even after accounting for individual predictors, national differences remain important. This underscores that regulatory environments, mobile-network infrastructure, the maturity of digital-finance ecosystems, and broader institutional conditions significantly shape financial-inclusion outcomes across Africa.
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During his inaugural speech as chairperson of the African Union (AU) for 2022-2023, President Macky Sall of Senegal called for the creation of a pan-African credit-rating agency, arguing that low sovereign ratings discourage investment, raise borrowing costs, and undermin Africa’s competitiveness in global markets (Wanjohi, 2022). Similarly, at the 35th AU Summit in February 2022, President Nana Akufo-Addo of Ghana criticised international credit-rating agencies for their “continuing consequential stranglehold” over African economies, which
constrains governments’ access to development finance and increases the cost of capital (African Peer Review Mechanism, 2022, p. 4).
These interventions reflect more than episodic political frustration. They point to a broader contest over how African economies are assessed and valued within the global financial system. Ideas about risk and creditworthiness are shaped by historical experience, structural constraints, and unequal power relations, and they in turn influence policy agendas and institutional reform (Jackson, 2021). From this perspective, African leaders’ critiques of the global credit-rating architecture can be read as an effort to assert greater agency over how African economic potential is defined and priced.
Furthermore, this contest has translated into concrete action. Since 2017, the AU has progressively laid the groundwork for a continental credit-rating alternative, mandating the African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM) to support member states on sovereign rating issues and explore ways to strengthen Africa’s position within the global rating system. This role was formalised in the 2020 Revised APRM Statute, which incorporated sovereign credit-rating assessment and advisory functions into APRM’s core responsibilities (African Peer Review Mechanism, 2020). Between 2022 and 2024, the APRM undertook technical work, including sovereign-rating reviews and expert consultations. Momentum increased in 2025, when AU leadership advanced plans for the Africa Credit Rating Agency (AfCRA) as a “homegrown solution” to reduce vulnerability to volatile or premature rating actions by global agencies (African Union, 2025). In September 2025, Mauritius was confirmed as host of AfCRA’s headquarters, reflecting its mature financial markets and regulatory environment (CNBC Africa, 2025).
While these developments underscore Africa’s efforts to reshape the macro-level architecture of credit assessment, they also raise a deeper question: To what extent can continental financial sovereignty be sustained without broad-based financial inclusion at the domestic level? Addressing this question requires shifting attention from sovereign ratings and global perceptions to the micro-level foundations on which resilient financial systems ultimately rest.
The ability of countries to build resilient financial markets, reduce exposure to external credit-rating volatility, and mobilise domestic capital depends on whether ordinary citizens are financially included – whether they can save, borrow, and transact within formal financial systems (Yakubu, 2021). Financial inclusion strengthens domestic resource mobilisation, supports fiscal stability, and enhances creditworthiness (Joudar & El Ghmari, 2025; Koudalo & Toure, 2023).
Against this backdrop, this policy paper examines the micro foundations of Africa’s financial landscape by analysing individual-level predictors of financial account ownership across 35 African countries using Afrobarometer Round 10 survey data. Distinguishing between bank accounts and mobile-money accounts allows for an assessment of both traditional and digital pathways to financial inclusion – two tracks that underpin the mobilisation of domestic capital. By foregrounding who is included, who remains excluded, and why, the analysis provides an empirical lens through which to understand the structural constraints that shape the continent’s financial sovereignty. In doing so, it offers evidence relevant not only for national financial-inclusion strategies but also for the AU’s broader ambition to build robust, resilient, and Africa-centred financial architectures.
Our findings reveal a financial landscape marked by both progress and variation. Mobile money has become the dominant gateway to financial services for millions of Africans – especially younger populations – while bank-account ownership remains concentrated among older, wealthier, urban, and more educated groups. Household assets and employment consistently emerge as the strongest individual-level predictors across both systems, with poverty, gender, and rural residence continuing to pose significant barriers.
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Yet individual characteristics alone do not tell the full story. A substantial share of the variation in financial inclusion – nearly 30% for bank accounts and more than 40% for mobile money – reflects differences in national context, including regulatory environments, digital infrastructure, and the maturity of financial ecosystems. These topline insights underscore an important lesson: Improving financial inclusion in Africa requires strategies that address both personal socioeconomic constraints and the structural conditions that enable or limit access. Readers will see how these micro- and macro-level dynamics interact, why they matter for domestic capital mobilisation, and what they imply for building resilient, inclusive financial systems across the continent.
Suhaylah Peeraullee Suhaylah Peeraullee is the capacity building trainer for Afrobarometer.
Dominique Dryding Dominique Dryding is Afrobarometer’s capacity building manager (basic track).
Kamal Yakubu Kamal Yakubu is Afrobarometer’s capacity building manager (advanced Track).
