The exclusion of the main opposition and rivalry between military factions could destabilise the 23 November elections.
Tensions are rising in Guinea-Bissau as the 23 November presidential and legislative elections approach. They take place in unusual circumstances.
First, Parliament has not convened since December 2023, when it was dissolved by the president after the National Guard clashed with the Presidential Guard in what was described as an attempted coup. At the time, the main opposition – the African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC) – held the majority of seats.
Second is President Umaro Sissoco Embaló’s controversial term in office. He assumed the presidency in February 2020 amid a post-electoral crisis and without waiting for the Supreme Court’s confirmation of his victory. The court finally recognised his win in September that year, which means the presidential poll should have been held before September 2025.
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Twelve candidates, including Embaló, are running for president, and 14 political groups, including one coalition, are vying for legislative seats.
Elections should help the country restore institutional legitimacy, but political actors are wary. Besides political tensions, there are fractures in the military and widespread public scepticism about state institutions. This situation undermines political stability and the credibility of the process, raising fears about a potential post-poll crisis.
The political upheaval was triggered by the Supreme Court’s decision to void the PAIGC’s participation in elections due to the late submission of its application. The Inclusive Alliance Platform-Terra Ranka coalition, a bloc of several PAIGC-led political parties, is also excluded. It will be the first time Guinea-Bissau goes to the polls without the PAIGC – a historic party that led the armed struggle for national liberation in 1973.
Then on 13 October the party’s president, Domingos Simões Pereira, was barred from running for president. This has led PAIGC leaders to support Fernando Dias in the presidential race. Dias is competing as an independent candidate since his Party for Social Renewal (PRS) is also absent from the election, having split into two factions: one supporting Embaló’s candidacy, and the other led by Dias.
The absence of these two major opposition parties upsets the political balance. The reconfiguration seems to favour Embaló, supported by the 16-party Plataforma Republicana Nô kumpu Guiné coalition, which seeks a second term for Embaló and a comfortable majority in the National People’s Assembly. The latter is plausible because the electoral system favours large coalitions, which help to consolidate the head of state’s position.
Although the PAIGC’s absence could have favoured Embaló’s victory, its support for Dias gives the presidential race a new trajectory. Under Pereira’s leadership, the party won the last two legislative elections in 2019 and 2023, ahead of the PRS and the president’s Movement for Democratic Change-G15. The unexpected PAIGC-Dias alliance challenges the regime’s certainty of a swift victory, making a second election round likely.
Two scenarios are emerging. A victory for Dias would lead to cohabitation in running the country, since a Parliament dominated by Embaló’s coalition would elect the prime minister. While the PAIGC could preserve some influence by forming a government with Dias, the risk is that Parliament could again be dissolved, plunging the country into another institutional crisis.
In 2023, when his party failed to secure a majority in Parliament, the president did not hesitate to dissolve the National People’s Assembly, violating the constitution.
But if Embaló wins, PAIGC’s influence will be reduced over the next five years, as it will be excluded from both the government and Parliament. A comfortable majority in Parliament would also enable Embaló to revise the constitution in order to increase his power.
This would pave the way for creating a presidential regime, significantly strengthening the powers of the head of state. Since 1993, Guinea-Bissau has had a semi-presidential system that balances power between the president and a prime minister designated by the parliamentary majority.
Beyond the political stakes, the upcoming elections are peculiar for three other reasons, especially on the organisational level. First, Guinea-Bissau is financing its own electoral process for the first time without relying on international development partners. Although many stakeholders appreciate this, the public questions the origin of the funds, particularly in the absence of parliamentary oversight of expenditure.
Second is the absence of long-term election observation missions, which is part of Embaló’s strategy to keep the international community out of the process. Observers deployed in previous elections helped ease political tension and improve election credibility. In a context where civil society organisations struggle to comprehensively monitor the process, short-term observer missions will play a key role.
Third is the announcement of the 31 October coup attempt on the eve of the launch of the electoral campaign. Several officers, including Cumeré military school Director, General Daba Na Walna, were arrested in what was presented as a move to interrupt the electoral process.
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The announcement highlights divisions in the military while raising questions about the army’s stance on the political landscape. The army has played a decisive role in the political sphere and has launched coups in the past, so power struggles between its factions and their backing of a candidate could influence the outcome of the elections.
In sum, the PAIGC’s exclusion from the polls, one-sided governance of the electoral process, political tensions and internal army fractures all increase the risk of post-electoral problems that could plunge the country back into crisis.
To avoid this, ECOWAS – which in 2012 launched a stabilisation process in the country – could have helped support the electoral process. But its capacity for action has been weakened since Embaló expelled its mission in March 2025. ECOWAS had sought an agreement and a roadmap guaranteeing the holding of legislative and presidential polls.
The peaceful outcome of Guinea-Bissau’s elections now depends on national rather than international actors. By organising credible elections on 23 November, the country could take an important step towards democratic consolidation and stability.
Paulin Maurice Toupane, Senior Researcher, Regional Office for West Africa and the Sahel
