Debating Ideas reflects the values and editorial ethos of the African Arguments book series, publishing engaged, often radical, scholarship, original and activist writing from within the African continent and beyond. It offers debates and engagements, contexts and controversies, and reviews and responses flowing from the African Arguments books. It is edited and managed by the International African Institute, hosted at SOAS University of London, the owners of the book series of the same name.
Less than three months away from the presidential election in Côte d’Ivoire on 25 October, there is a mounting climate of fear. Marked by the injuries sustained during the 2010-11 and 2020 electoral crises, that are still alive, many people are dreading a new flare-up of violence.
In 2010, the post-electoral crisis cost the lives of more than 3,000 people. Ten years later, in 2020, tensions connected to the controversial candidate Alassane Ouattara for a third mandate led to around 50 deaths. Now, as the campaign is announced, tensions are increasing again, fed by the exclusion of several major opposition figures.
Four opposition figures excluded
Four influential political leaders have been removed from the electoral list for legal or administrative reasons.
The former head of state, Laurent Gbagbo, president of the Parti des Peuples Africains de Côte d’Ivoire (African People’s Party of Côte d’Ivoire, PPA-CI), although acquitted by the International Criminal Court (ICC), has still been hit with a 20-year prison sentence in Côte d’Ivoire for the ‘hold up’ of the Central Bank of West African States in 2011.
His former minister, Charles Blé Goudé, leader of the Pan-African Congress of Young People and Patriots (COJEP), has at the same time been acquitted by the ICC, but was charged in 2019, in absentia, with a 20-year prison sentence for acts of torture, voluntary manslaughter, and rape during the post-electoral crisis.
Guillaume Soro, ex-chief rebel, former Prime Minister, erstwhile President of the National Assembly and president of the movement Générations et Peuples Solidaires (Generations and People in Solidarity, GPS), is living in exile, having received a life-sentence for an attempted attack on state security. An earlier sentence of 20 years was inflicted on him in 2020 for the concealment of embezzlement of public money.
Finally, Tidjane Thiam, the new president of the Parti Démocratique de Côte d’Ivoire (Democratic Party of Côte d’Ivoire), has also been struck from the electoral list. The justice system opines that he lost his Ivorian nationality in 1987 by acquiring French nationality at a time when dual nationality was not allowed.
Politically judged exclusions
Supporters of these leaders are denouncing a power manoeuvre, aiming to lockdown the presidential election. The RHDP, the party in power, rejects these accusations. At this time, some have met the recourse to contest these eliminations without responding, and others regard it unfavourably. The African Court on Human and People’s Rights, a jurisdiction from which Côte d’Ivoire has distanced itself, rejected on Thursday 26 June claims from Laurent Gbagbo and Guillaume Soro, who argue that many of their rights have been violated.
Other claims by the opposition have been made, notably a revision of the electoral list before the October 2025 vote, reform of the Independent Electoral Commission (CEI), judged to be too close to those in power, as well as a complete audit of the electoral register. The opposition is equally calling for political dialogue to deal with all these matters.
Faced with these demands, the Ivorian government and the CEI are opposing an end of inadmissibility. Those in power argue that it is neither necessary nor opportune to engage in reforms at this stage of the process, invoking notably a lack of time. This posture is feeding frustration of the opposition which is radicalising and maintaining pressure, determined to gain from the cause. Those in power remain firm and warn that any attempt to disrupt public order will be severely reprimanded.
This tension between political actors is being propagated among activists who are militating and arguing on social media. Videos are regularly disseminated showing individuals threatening people from other ethnic groups, or who have differing political opinions.
Alassane Ouattara’s candidature suspended
Will president Alassane Ouattara be a candidate? This is one of the questions that is provoking discussions in the approach to the elections. In power since 2011, his candidature for a third mandate in 2020 has been vigorously contested, unleashing violent demonstrations in several localities in the country, causing around 50 deaths.
In 2025, supporters of the RHDP are encouraging him to take part. At an ordinary meeting of his party on Sunday 22 June 2025, at the Ébimpé stadium in Anyama, Alassane Ouattara floated doubt: ‘concerning my candidature for the presidential election of 25 October, I have understood you, and I thank you for your confidence. In the coming days, after mature refection in my soul and conscience, I will take a decision,’ he emphasised.
On their side, the opposition are inviting him to withdraw, on the grounds that he is no longer eligible. For others among the population, the simple prospect of a new candidate could revive tensions.
Fear in the country
In the streets of Abidjan, the feeling of disquiet is palpable. ‘The elections are approaching. When we recall those of 2010 and 2020, we can only be afraid. I know people who are intending to leave the city of Abidjan during the election’, Keita Mory, a young taxi driver intimates.
In Daloa, Seri Juliette, a mother, has not forgotten: ‘My husband was killed during the 2011 crisis. My son was one year old. It’s still traumatic today. I pray that this election does not turn into another drama.’
There is the same fear in Toumodi, a town murdered by inter-communal violence in 2020. ‘Here, people were burned alive, houses and shops were pillaged. We live with this fear. Every time we talk about elections, there is panic’, testifies Konan Yvonne, a young inhabitant.
Religious tensions
In the face of uncertainty, many are turning to prayer. Calls for peace are multiplying in the churches as well as the mosques. ‘For some time, our pastor is asking us to pray every day for Côte d’Ivoire’, reports Carine Akissi, who belongs to a Pentecostal church.
Malick Diarrassouba, a businessman and practising Muslim living in Yopougon, confides his concern: ‘During the last crises, believers were targeted for their so-called allegiance to a political camp. Today, we pray so that God protects our country. Every Friday, the Imam talks to us about peace and tolerance. We want to go and vote calmly, but it feels as it everything can get out of control at any moment.’
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A political analyst’s proposal for a peaceful election
For Eddi Bibi Junior, Ivorian socio-political analyst, Côte d’Ivoire is at a pivotal moment in its democratic history. According to him, the climate is tense because of old political divisions, recent changes, like the return of Laurent Gbagbo onto the Ivorian political scene, and the arrival of Tidjane Thiam, as well as repeated calls from the opposition to reform the electoral process. The question of Alassane Ouattara’s possible candidature for a fourth mandate is adding to this tension.
Eddi Bibi Junior proposes several important measures to calm the climate before the 2025 presidential election. He insists on the necessity of inclusive political dialogue, bringing together the party in power, the opposition, and civil society to discuss electoral reforms and the revision of the electoral list. He suggests an amnesty law, or an exceptional measure, to permit certain excluded leaders to recover their civic rights, which would be a strong gesture towards peace. Finally, he calls on all parties to adopt a calmer and more responsible discourse, and encourages civil society organisations to play a mediation and sensitisation role to strengthen confidence in the democratic process.
*This piece was translated from the original French by Stephanie Kitchen, Managing Editor at International African Institute.
Gael Zozoro is an Ivorian journalist passionate about meaningful stories, inspiring journeys, and major topics such as politics, the environment, economy, sports, and society. For over seven years, he has practised his profession with dedication in Côte d’Ivoire and beyond, driven by the belief that information can enlighten, raise awareness, and transform society.
